'Mizzou To The Lou': Memphis At Missouri Week 4 Best Bets
This is the 2nd straight week that the Missouri Tigers (3-0) are hosting a non-conference opponent, the Memphis Tigers (3-0). Missouri meets Memphis for the Mizzou To The Lou at The Dome at America's Center in St. Louis, Missouri Saturday.
Missouri is coming off a massive win last week. Mizzou upset the Kansas State Wildcats 30-27 Saturday as +3 home underdogs with a miraculous 61-yard game-winning field goal as time expired.
Memphis moved to 3-0 after eking past the Navy Midshipmen 28-24 this past weekend. But, Memphis failed to cover as -11 home favorites. Both teams are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) entering the Mizzou To The Lou game.
First off all, their Week 3 results make Missouri a "sell-high" team and Memphis a "buy-low" team. I don't have data for this but if you blindly fade college football teams coming off a huge win, you'd be in the green.
MISSOURI COACH ELI DRINKWITZ GOES FULL MIKE GUNDY IN EPIC RANT AFTER EARLY BOO-BIRDS
Tigers LB Ty'Ron Hopper celebrates after a play against the Kansas State Wildcats at Memorial Stadium on Sept. 16, 2023, in Columbia, Missouri. (Abigail Landwehr/Tribune/USA TODAY NETWORK)
I followed this logic in my "Weekend Guide To Winning Betting For September 16-17" article. One of the two college football bets I cashed last week was Wyoming Cowboys +30 at the Texas Longhorns who beat the Alabama Crimson Tide the week prior.
Also, the public perception is Missouri is way better than Memphis because Mizzou is from the SEC. However, Memphis ranks 43rd nationally in schedule-adjusted efficiency and Missouri is 36th, per BCFToys.com.
Memphis Tigers QB Seth Henigan throws a pass vs. the Navy Midshipmen at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Tennessee. (Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal /USA TODAY NETWORK)
Furthermore, Memphis is ranked higher in non-garbage time net expected points added per play and net success rate. Missouri has played the 123rd-toughest schedule thus far, according to Pro Football Focus, and Memphis, 95th.
Finally, this is just a spot where Missouri doesn't cover. Since 2020 (Missouri coach Eli Drinkwtiz's 1st year in Columbia), Mizzou is 4-9 ATS vs. non-conference teams and 2-6 ATS as a favorite against non-conference foes with a -4.7 ATS margin.