Mix These NBA Picks Into Your Monday Night Football Bet Slip

On one hand, I'm down in the dumps about my NBA betting performance through the first couple of weeks of the season. On the other, I'm handicapping angry and I do my best gambling when I'm mad. My NBA record is 14-15 and my bankroll is -4.02 units (u).

NBA Monday Bets

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat (-125), 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off

This is the rare game where Miami is healthier than its opponent. The Lakers will be without PF Rui Hachimura and former Heat PG Gabe Vincent. Point blank, the Lakers aren't deep enough to win in Miami, especially when you consider their roster.

The Lakers are 24th in average age of players, meaning they are one of the oldest teams in the NBA. This explains why the Lakers are 10-13 straight up (SU) and 9-13-1 against the spread (ATS) with a rest disadvantage since 2022.

Also, Heat combo guard Tyler Herro has a real edge vs. LAL's backcourt. Neither Lakers PG D'Angelo Russell nor SG Austin Reaves can D up. Herro is going to light Reaves up in a battle of white boys.

Heat SG Tyler Herro hoists a 3-pointer vs. the Brooklyn Nets at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, the Lakers rely on scoring in the paint. The Heat are 21st in paint points per game (PPG) allowed so far this season. But, in the previous three seasons, Miami was either 1st or 2nd in paint PPG allowed.

Finally, the 3-point shot is the end-all-be-all of the NBA nowadays. Well, the Lakers are 29th in 3-point percentage (29.7%) and the Heat are 5th (39.1%). The Lakers are making nearly four fewer 3s per game than their opponent.

My prediction: Heat 108, Lakers 103

Bet slip from PointsBet for Lakers-Heat in NBA Monday.

UNDER 218 in Kings-Rockets, 8 p.m. ET tip-off

This is the second of a Kings-Rockets back-to-back (B2B) with Houston winning the first 107-89 Saturday. That game went well Under the 221.5-point total. Typically, in the NBA, you want to zig-zag the results in the second of a B2B.

However, the injury of Sacramento PG De'Aaron Fox plus the pace of Saturday's Kings-Rockets tilt has me thinking this game goes Under as well. There was a 94.3 pace in that game and the slowest average pace in the NBA is 96.8.

Rockets wing Dillon Brooks drives past Sacramento Kings SG Malik Monk at the Toyota Center in Houston. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

There are two reasons Kings-Rockets Saturday played at a snail's pace. First, Houston are 29th pace in the NBA thus far. Second, Sacramento's fastbreak rate drops by 5.0% when Fox is off the floor, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Lastly, without Fox, there is no one on the Kings that can create easy looks for teammates. Per CTG, Sacramento scores 18.8 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Fox is out of the game. This Kings-Rockets game will be a rock-fight just like the last one.

My prediction: Kings 108, Rockets 104

Bet slip from PointsBet for Kings-Rockets in NBA Monday.