Betting Pick For Monday's 2025 NFL Wild Card Round Finale: Minnesota Vikings Vs. LA Rams

It's tough getting off the mat after a disastrous first two days of the 2025 NFL Wild Card Weekend, during which I went 0-5. That's right. I saved my first 0-5 for the 2024-25 season for the first round of the playoffs. It hurts even more, considering that this is usually my strongest part of the NFL calendar from a betting perspective. 

The wild-card round has been a three-day weekend since 2021 when the NFL went to a 14-team postseason format. Monday's wild-card game this year is the 5-seed Minnesota Vikings playing the 4-seed NFC East champion Los Angeles Rams, which has been relocated to Glendale, Arizona due to the wildfires in LA. 

Before it was officially moved, this game got to a "pick ‘em" in the betting market. After the NFL announced the game would be moved, the Vikings ballooned up to -2.5 favorites at BetMGM. Minnesota’s moneyline is -145, Los Angeles has a +120 moneyline and the total is 47.5, -110 on the Over and Under. 

The Rams beat the Vikings 30-20 at home on Thursday Night Football in Week 8. Back when I didn't suck at betting on the NFL, I got this game right. It was an "all-in" game for the Rams, who were 2-4 entering that week and there were rumors they were shopping WR Cooper Kupp at the trade deadline.

LISTEN: The OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Wild Card Weekend 2025 Betting Roundtable ft. Dan Z & Scott Martin

But, Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua returned from injury, head coach Sean McVay rallied the troops, and the Rams had their best performance of the season to date. Matt Stafford completed 25-of-34 passes for 279 yards with four TDs and one INT. Nacua had 7 receptions for 106 yards. Kupp caught 5 balls for 51 yards and one TD. 

Also, when adjusting for the opponent, LA's defense played one of its best games of the season against Minnesota in Week 8. The Rams held Vikings RB Aaron Jones to 58 rushing yards on 19 carries and pressured QB Sam Darnold on 38% of his dropbacks. For context, the Dallas Cowboys had an NFL-best 30% pressure rate in the regular season, and the Rams were at 21%. 

Minnesota's defense, on the other hand, pressured Stafford on just 12% of his dropbacks. The Vikings had the highest blitz rate in the league during the regular season. However, if the blitz doesn't get home, Stafford will carve them up. According to Pro Football Focus, Stafford has a 109.7 QB Rating when kept clean and a 50.8 QB Rating when pressured. 

The Minnesota Vikings face the Los Angeles Rams Monday in the 2025 NFL Wild Card Round at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is a branch of McVay's "coaching tree" and I usually take the master over a pupil when they meet. Especially in this case when McVay essentially has a rest and preparation edge since he rested his starters in Week 18. While Minnesota played the Detroit Lions in a game to win the NFC North to end the season. Teams are 6-10 straight up and 4-12 against the spread the week after playing Detroit. 

Finally, the 2.5-point line move for the change of venue is an overreaction. The Rams have one of the weakest home crowds in the NFL. Their practice routine was disrupted, but they can use a winning strategy from earlier this season. Plus, it may be a mistake to bet on the Vikings based on the wildfire situation. Professional athletes are built differently, and you never know how these things affect them. Football could be a welcome distraction from these wildfires. 

Prediction: Rams 27, Vikings 23

• FanDuel has the best number available for Los Angeles at +2.5 (-105). Even though I think they win outright, the Rams as a 6-point teaser leg paired up with the Kansas City Chiefs over the Houston Texans in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round is a good play. DraftKings accepts 6-point teasers.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.