Don't Overthink It: Stay Away From Betting Minnesota Vikings Futures In 2024

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NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. Check out my AFC South, NFC South, and AFC North team-by-team previews. Let's conclude the NFC North primer with the team expected to finish last in the division: The Minnesota Vikings. 

The most interesting offseason decision in the NFL was Minnesota allowing former QB Kirk Cousins to sign with the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. Granted, Cousins is coming off of a season-ending Achilles tear and turned 36 August 19. But, he is a four-time Pro Bowler, played the best football of his career before getting hurt last year, and won 13 games in 2022. 

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson and former QB Kirk Cousins warm up before a game against the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson and former QB Kirk Cousins warm up before a game against the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, the Vikings have a solid offensive line, the best offensive weapon, WR Justin Jefferson, a good No. 2 WR, Jordan Addison, who had 10 TD catches as a rookie last year, and signed Pro Bowl RB Aaron Jones this offseason. So, Minnesota's decision suggests the organization thinks Cousins post-Achilles tear isn't worth the $180 million deal he signed with Atlanta.

Instead, the Vikings took QB J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and signed journeyman backup QB Sam Darnold to a team-friendly one-year, $10 million contract. Darnold won the quarterback battle by default when McCarthy tore his meniscus against the Las Vegas Raiders in Minnesota's first preseason game. 

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 3:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, August 21. 

  • Super Bowl: +8000
  • Conference: +3500
  • Division: +850
  • Playoffs: Yes (+270), No (-355)
  • 7.5 Wins:  Over (+134), Under (-168)

Since there is a 10% chance Darnold will be a league-average quarterback next year, I'm assuming the Vikings will develop more of a defensive identity in 2024. They signed five new defensive starters in free agency, including pass rusher Jonathan Greenard and All-Pro CB Stephon Gilmore, and drafted Alabama Crimson Tide pass rusher Dallas Turner with the 17th pick. 

More importantly, Minnesota second-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores is a defensive mastermind. The Vikings were 13th in points per game allowed in 2023 and should be better defensively this season since they presumably signed people that fit Flores' scheme. 

That said, I cannot trust a team with Darnold as their quarterback. Minnesota is the USC Trojan's fourth stop because he has a 23-35 record as a starter. Even if the Vikings are a "defensive team", they'll still need a quarterback to win coin-flip games. Well, Darnold is not that guy and I won't overthink this one. 

Vikings QB Sam Darnold throws a pass vs. the Las Vegas Raiders during an NFL preseason game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

Vikings QB Sam Darnold throws a pass vs. the Las Vegas Raiders during an NFL preseason game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally, Minnesota is projected to face the fifth-toughest schedule next season based on opponents' Las Vegas win totals, per Warren Sharp. The Vikings are favored in just three games on the preseason look-ahead lines with non-division games against the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Los Angeles Rams. 

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Projection: 6-11 to finish last in the NFC North 

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‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Minnesota Vikings on unlimited bankroll: Sam Darnold UNDER 3,475.5 passing yards (-112) 

I think so much of Minnesota's coaching staff that I cannot give out a season-long future, unfortunately. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is an elite playcaller and game sequencer, and he has a lot of offensive talent to work with. Flores turned around Minnesota's defense in his first season with less talent than he currently has. 

Plus, a 4.5-alternate-win total at FanDuel is only +270, and I don't think a team with O'Connell and Flores on the sidelines wins four or fewer games. The only thing worth betting is the Under for Darnold's regular-season passing yards. Darnold has never played more than 13 regular-season games and 3,024 passing yards is his career-high for a year. 

Sixteen NFL quarterbacks threw for more than 3,400 yards in 2023 and QB Sam Howell is the only one that switched teams this offseason. Again, if Darnold was "that good", a team would've retained his services. Whether it be injury or benching, it's unlikely Darnold beats his career-high by 450+ passing yards. 

Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.

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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.