Timberwolves Have An Edge Over Grizzlies In Regular-Season Playoff Game Thursday

Since a logjam exists between the 2-7 seeds in the Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves (46-33) at the Memphis Grizzlies (47-32) Thursday is a de facto playoff game. Minnesota locked up at least an 8-seed. But, the T-Wolves are 1.5 games behind the Denver Nuggets for the 4-seed and 1.0 behind Memphis for the sixth and final non-play-in-seed out West.

This is the third and final regular-season Timberwolves-Grizzlies game. Memphis won the first two meetings in January, home and away, by a combined four points and covered the spread once. Minnesota had its five-game winning streak snapped Tuesday in a horrific 110-103 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, getting out-scored by 27 points in the fourth quarter (40-13). 

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The Grizzlies are on a three-game winning streak after losing four in a row to the OKC Thunder, LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, and Golden State Warriors. But, those three recent wins are over the 36-44 Miami Heat, the Detroit Pistons sans two starters, and the tanking Charlotte Hornets. Since Jan. 1, Memphis is 7-16 overall and 6-16-1 against the spread vs. teams with a winning record. 

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant shoots over Minnesota Timberwolves SG Donte DiVincenzo at Target Center. (Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images)

This brings me to the first reason that I like the T-Wolves Thursday: The Grizzlies didn't get better after firing former head coach Taylor Jenkins two weeks ago. Their current win streak is more about who they've played than them playing better, and Minnesota is a step-up from Memphis's recent competition. 

Also, the Grizzlies have been awful at defending 3-pointers. Since the NBA All-Star break, they are 27th in defensive "wide open" 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 26th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. The Timberwolves are sixth in 3PAr and fifth in offensive 3-point shooting percentage. 

Meanwhile, Memphis is 28th in shot quality in the second half of the season, per CleaningTheGlass.com, because it attempts too many inefficient long-mid-range jumpers and not enough 3-pointers and dunks. Minnesota attacks the basket at an above-average rate and shoots a ton of 3-pointers. Grizzlies PG Ja Morant's outside shooting makes them an easier team to defend. 

Furthermore, the Timberwolves are built to stop what Memphis relies on: Crashing the glass and scoring in transition. The Grizzlies are third in second-chance points per game (PPG) and eighth in fastbreak PPG, while the T-Wolves are 10th in second-chance PPG allowed and seventh in fastbreak PPG allowed. 

Despite its ugly loss Tuesday, Minnesota has been trending in the right direction, and All-Star Anthony Edwards is the best player on the floor. The Timberwolves are 15-8 overall since the NBA All-Star game with a +7.2 scoring margin. I'm not in love with betting the T-Wolves at -2 when they opened at +1, but Minnesota is playable up to -3, and I feel like gambling Thursday. 

Prediction: Timberwolves 120, Grizzlies 114

• For the record, which is god-awful this season, I'm risking 1.1 units on Minnesota -2 (-110), available at most legal U.S. sportsbooks. 

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