Michigan Will Get The Monkey Off Its Back By Beating Alabama In 2024 CFP Semifinal
"If not now, when?" That's the question the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) should be asking themselves. They face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) in the College Football Playoff (CFP) Semifinal at the Rose Bowl New Year's Day at 5 p.m. ET.
This is Michigan's 3rd consecutive CFP appearance and the easiest path for the Wolverines yet. No offense to Alabama QB Jalen Milroe but he is the least explosive Crimson Tide passing attack since the Jalen Hurts' days back in 2017.
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Alabama knocked off the 2-time reigning national champion Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC title game to clinch a CFP berth. The unproven Texas Longhorns' and Washington Huskies' programs wait on the other side should Michigan beat 'Bama.
Michigan Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh after clinching a 2024 CFP berth with a win in the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
The Wolverines coasted to a 2023 Big Ten title with its closest victory being a 30-24 win over the Ohio State Buckeyes in The Game in late November. In fact, UM's biggest challenge this season was off-field distractions.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh served two different suspensions in 2023. He missed the first three games this season after the school's self-imposed suspension for recruiting violations. Then the Big Ten suspended Harbaugh three games for the sign-stealing scandal.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ultimately, I'm riding out with my preseason prediction of Michigan and Harbaugh getting the monkey off their backs. I gave out the Wolverines to go Over their regular-season win total of 10.5 wins and Michigan +900 to win the national championship.
Alabama isn't scaring me off of that prediction. The Wolverines allow fewer points per play and score more points per play. They have a higher net yards per play and first-down differential. As always, the biggest question is "Can Michigan keep up with an SEC team?"
I say "Yes" because this is the worst 'Bama team since Nick Saban started winning titles. Sports Reference does a "Simple Rating System"(SRS), which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule. The 2023 Crimson Tide have the lowest SRS since 2008, Saban's second season in Alabama.
Nick Saban and Alabama Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe celebrate a win over Georgia in the 2023 SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Predictably, the sports betting market is betting the Crimson Tide. Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the bets are on Alabama as of 10:30 a.m. ET Monday. The CFP semifinal is one of the few times where fading the public is an actionable angle in college football.
Finally, Michigan’s defense will bottle up Alabama's offense. The Wolverines are 13th nationally in sack rate and the Crimson Tide is 130th in sack rate allowed. Alabama only gains 4.0 yards per rush (85th) and Michigan’s defense allows just 2.9 yards per carry.