Miami Is An 'Auto-Bet' In Game 3 Of NBA Finals Vs. Denver
My handicap for Game 3 Wednesday of the 2023 NBA Finals with the Miami Heat (1-1) hosting the Denver Nuggets (1-1) is super simple. The Nuggets are -2.5 road favorites vs. the Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Finals in South Beach.
Denver was +4 in Game 3 at the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Nuggets were +5.5 at the LA Lakers for Game 3 of the conference finals. Miami isn't 8 points worse than LAL and 6.5 points worse than Phoenix.
The Nuggets being road 'dogs at the Suns in the second round made sense. Phoenix had better odds to win the title than Denver entering the playoffs. Plus, the Nuggets had a losing record on the road during the regular season.
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic drives the ball on Miami Heat C Bam Adebayo in Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena in Colorado. (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
I get that the narrative heading into Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. Allegedly, there was "No way the NBA will let the Lakers get swept". Also, the Lakers slayed the defending champion Warriors in the second round.
But, those people, including me, were wrong. Speaking of "narratives," the market still seems to think that the Heat are lucky to be in The Finals and still doesn't give Miami the respect it deserves.
Nuggets at Heat Game 3 Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting odds for the Miami Heat at the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals from DraftKings.
Everyone thinks that they are getting a cheap price with Denver in Game 3. According to VSIN, more than 90% of the money at DraftKings is on the Nuggets -2.5 as of Monday morning.
If you're a sports bettor, your first instinct should be to fade a market as lopsided as the Nuggets-Heat in Game 3. More importantly, there's a chance that Heat SG Tyler Herro returns Wednesday.
Herro is going to massacre Denver's defense in pick-and-roll action (PnR). During this postseason, the Nuggets rank 11th in PnR defensive efficiency vs. ball handlers out of 16 playoff teams.
Miami Heat combo guard Tyler Herro drives past Denver Nuggets big Nikola Jokic at Ball Arena. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)
Denver was 16th in defensive rating in the regular season. Two of Miami's 1st three 2023 NBA playoff victims — the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics — ranked fourth and third in defensive rating.
Herro is a 20.1 point-per-game (PPG) scorer and is tied with Jimmy Butler for the highest usage rate on the Heat. Butler has been dealing with an ankle injury since the second round and could use Herro's shot-creating ability.
The Nuggets have three bad defenders in their starting 5. Denver PG Jamal Murray had a -1.3 defensive box +/- (DBPM) this season, SF Michael Porter Jr. had a -1.8 DBPM, and Jokic cannot stay in front of Heat big Bam Adebayo.
BET HEAT TO WIN NBA FINALS OVER NUGGETS ENTERING GAME 2
Denver is allowing four more "wide-open" 3-point attempts per game than Miami through the first two games of the NBA Finals. "Wide-open" 3s are when there are at least six feet between the shooter and the nearest defender.
Back to my original point, the market continues to not believe in the Heat. In the 1st three rounds of these playoffs, Miami is 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home in Game 3.
Miami Heat C Bam Adebayo dunks the ball on Denver Nuggets F Michael Porter Jr. in Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena. (Mark J. Terrill/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports)
The average final score of those Game 3s is 118.0-95.7 in the Heat's favor. In other words, they have a +23.2 ATS margin in Game 3s this postseason. Miami was an underdog in two of those contests and an underdog to win all three of those series.
BET: Miami Heat +2.5 (-110) over the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of the NBA Finals
Gambling strategy: Since Herro's official Game 3 status is still up in the air, it's best to take the points with Miami ASAP. If Herro returns Wednesday then the Heat's spread will shrink for Game 3.
The Miami Heat's odds vs. the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals as of 1 p.m. ET Monday, June 5 from DraftKings.