Miami Heat Vs. Denver Nuggets: NBA Finals 2023 Gambling Preview
After an anti-climatic Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals, we now have our matchup for the 2023 NBA Finals. The Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat take on the Western Conference champion Denver Nuggets.
Both conference finals were rematches of the 2020 NBA Orlando Bubble conference finals. Miami beat the Boston Celtics in the 1st three games of the Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) before losing three straight.
Heat F Jimmy Butler celebrates with the Eastern Conference Finals MVP trophy after beating the Boston Celtics in Game 7. (Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports)
But, the Heat ended up crushing the Celtics 103-84 in a Boston no-show. Playoff Jimmy Butler won the ECF MVP, aka the Larry Bird Trophy. He averaged a team-high 24.7 points per game (PPG) and 6.1 assists in the ECF.
Butler edged out Miami SF Caleb Martin for the Larry Bird Trophy by five votes to four. Martin was the breakout star in the ECF, scoring 19.3 PPG on 73.8% true shooting (.602/.489/.875).
As the 1-seed out West, Denver will have a home-court advantage in the 2023 NBA Finals. It took the Nuggets five games to eliminate the 8-seed Minnesota Timberwolves in the 1st-Round.
Then Denver beat the 4-seed Phoenix Suns in six games in the 2nd round before sweeping the 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers in a Western Conference Finals that was closer than the sweep indicates.
Denver PG Jamal Murray talks with Nikola Jokic during the 2023 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles. (Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)
Nuggets big, and 2-time NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic is on a tear in this postseason. Jokic is leading the NBA playoffs in Win Shares per 48, PER, and VORP while averaging a 29.9-13.3-10.3 triple-double.
Denver PG Jamal Murray has been the Robin to Jokic's Batman. Murray is averaging 27.7 PPG on 59.5% true shooting (.480/.398/.925) with 6.1 assists in these playoffs.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Finals 2023 odds
Series odds
Even though Denver is clearly the class of the NBA, the Nuggets (-400) to win the 2023 NBA Finals is a no-go. Denver beat Miami in both meetings during the regular season by an average score of 118.0-113.5.
Since Butler joined Miami in 2019, the Heat are 1-7 overall vs. the Nuggets and 1-7 against the spread. The totals in those eight Heat-Nuggets meetings are 6-2 Over/Under.
I give Miami a puncher's chance in the NBA Finals as I did for the ECF vs. Boston. The NBA Finals odds are based somewhat on regular-season performance. At this point, we can all agree this is a different Heat team.
Murray celebrates a bucket with Jokic and Nuggets F Aaron Gordon in the 4th quarter vs. the Heat at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)
Miami's path to victory is an arduous one. Jokic is the best player in this series and that's that. But, the Heat have the better coach and if Butler, Martin, and Bam Adebayo can be the 2-4 best players in the NBA Finals, they can win it all.
However, that's unlikely and Miami (+310) isn't a juicy enough payout. Instead of taking the Heat, or Nuggets for that matter, to win the NBA Finals, I'll bet this series game in, game out, and hit some player props.
NBA Finals 2023 PICK but no bet: Heat in 7
Series spread
The series spreads for the Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Finals from DraftKings as of 9:45 a.m. ET Tuesday, May 30th.
Miami out-performed Denver in three of the “four factors” in their two meetings this season. But, the Nuggets had a 65.1% effective field goal rate (eFG%) in the 1st game vs. the Heat and 70.4% eFG% in the 2nd.
When you get to the top tier of basketball — the NCAA Tournament or NBA playoffs — the games turn into possession basketball. Miami attempted 11 more field goals than Denver in both of their meetings this season.
Heat SF Jimmy Butler gets to the rack on the Nuggets at Miami-Dade Arena in Miami. (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
Because I believe in #HeatCULTURE and Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, my favorite pre-NBA Finals bet is the Heat +1.5 series spread (+125). If Miami upsets Denver or the NBA Finals goes the distance then this bet cashes.
That said, Heat +1.5 for the series is a lean and not a like. My stance is I'd rather take shots at games in this series with smaller increments rather than be pot-committed to Miami on a bigger bet.