A Winning Pick, 25-to-1 SGP For Miami Dolphins At Los Angeles Rams Monday In NFL Week 10
Okay, I lied when writing I'd "do a deeper dive" into the Miami Dolphins (2-6) at the Los Angeles Rams (4-4) on Monday Night Football (MNF) in my Circa Million VI picks piece for NFL Week 10. My analysis is straightforward: Los Angeles has the better quarterback, coach, defense, and special teams. With that in mind, the Rams should be at least -3.5 favorites.
However, as of 2 p.m. ET Monday, LAR is a -2.5 favorite throughout the market with a -140 to -150 moneyline. Miami has a +120 to +125 moneyline with a 48-48.5 total. My only hesitancy about backing the Rams is knowing they will be the trendy pick. Nonetheless, that was the case last week when Los Angeles beat the Seattle Seahawks 26-20 in overtime.
Also, Rams QB Matthew Stafford will have all day in the pocket to get the ball to his stud WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Stafford hasn't been sacked in his last two games against the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks, both of whom have better pass rushes than Miami.
More importantly, the Dolphins have been terrible in primetime games and vs. quality competition since hiring head coach Mike McDaniel in 2022. Miami is 2-9 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in primetime games with a -9.0 spread differential over that span. The Dolphins are 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS vs. teams .500 or better with an -8.2 ATS margin.
They got waxed by the Buffalo Bills 31-10 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 and by the Tennessee Titans 31-12 on MNF in Week 4. Granted, Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa missed the latter primetime game with an injury. But, Tennessee started backup QB Mason Rudolph and the game was in Miami, so the Dolphins don't have an excuse for that no-show.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-115) at BetMGM
_____________________________
‘Same Game Parlay’ at DraftKings (+2500)
- Rams moneyline for the game.
- Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua anytime touchdown.
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 247.5 passing yards.
- Miami RB Raheem Mostert OVER 33.5 rushing yards.
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford OVER 23.5 completions.
For the record, I'd only place a Pizza Bet on this Same Game Parlay (SGP). The first leg is obvious. Instead of fussing with the spread, I'll take LAR's moneyline. The Nacua SGP leg is a hunch. Nacua hasn't scored a TD yet this season, which has to change eventually. Puka does too many things in this offense and will get rewarded with a TD.
Tua averages 185.3 passing yards in his 12 career primetime games with an 83.3 QB Rating. Those marks are career lows for any of Tua's game-time splits. He's thrown for more than 235 yards once this season despite completing 72.7% of his passes. I'm expecting the Rams to take away the big play and make Tua dink and dunk down the field.
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa hands the ball off to RB Raheem Mostert vs. the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in NFL Week 9. (Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)
In his 37 games with Miami, Mostert has rushed for 34+ yards 28 times, including in three of his four games this year. The Dolphins won't want to get into a shootout with the Rams, so Mostert and Miami RB De'Von Achane should get a lot of work Monday.
Stafford has completed 25+ passes in all three games Nacua and Kupp have started this season. Since Miami is 30th in sack rate, McVay will be comfortable having Stafford drop back many times this game. The Dolphins have given up 26 and 25 completions in their last two games.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.