Mexico Open 2024 Best Bets, One-And-Done Pick
We head south of the border to Puerto Vallarta for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta. Compared to last week's Genesis Invitational (a "signature event") and the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago, the Mexico Open's field is a massive step down. Tony Finau, World No. 24 and reigning Mexico Open champion, is the best player in the Official World Golf Rankings teeing up at Vidanta this week.
Greg Norman, aka Voldemort, designed this course. This is a "Bomber’s Paradise" where golfers that drive it 20 yards off-the-tee (OTT) higher than the field gain +2.3 strokes per round. "Length" is Vidanta’s only real defense, which also tests golfers’ long irons. The Mexico Open was in late April the past two seasons. Moving the Mexico Open up two months gives the winner another chance to make the Masters.
READ: Hideki Matsuyama Goes Unconscious At Riviera, Patrick Cantlay Hates Weekends, And The PGA Tour's Lack Of Juice
Despite my favorite golfer, Hideki Matsuyama, winning last week's Genesis Invitational, my public record still took a hit. Hideki wasn't one of the six golfers to make my betting card. I jumped in on Matsuyama live during the first round at +4300 odds and again at +265 when he entered a five-way tie at -14 in Round 4 Sunday. But, since I forgot to announce it on X, or Twitter, it doesn't count towards my public betting record.
Hideki Matsuyama lining up a putt on the 11th green at the Riviera Country Club in the 2024 Genesis Invitational.
What makes it worse is that I went to the Genesis Saturday and followed Hideki for a few holes. I.e. there's no excuse for me not publicly profiting from Matsuyama's victory. As a result, my PGA Tour 2024 betting balance fell -7.54 units (u) to -28.53u after the Genesis. After making money in my first year-and-a-half betting on the PGA Tour, it appears my beginner's luck has run out.
Anyhow, my gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
Mexico Open 2024 Best Bets
- Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Taylor Pendrith
Vidanta favors the Bombers and Pendrith is one of the most powerful ball strikers on Tour. Over the last 40 rounds, Pendrith is eighth in this field for driving distance, 15th in SG: OTT, and 24th in Ball Speed per drive, according to my Bet The Number model. Pendrith tied for 30th in the Mexico Open last season.
He lost strokes OTT (-1.5) last season in the Mexico Open, which is rare for this Canadian. That said, Pendrith gained strokes +2.9 tee-to-green (T2G), +4.3 on Approach (APP), and +1.8 Putting at Vidanta in 2023.
Taylor Pendrith lines up a putt on the 9th green during the 2023 PGA Championship in Rochester, New York. (Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports)
(Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports)
However, Taylor’s game is in a better place heading into the Mexico Open this season. He missed the cut in three of the five events with a T69 in THE PLAYERS Championship and T70 at Corales Puntacana before last year’s Mexico Open.
During the FedEx Fall schedule, Pendrith has a T3 at the Shriners Children’s Open, T15 in the World Wide Technology Championship, and T8 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. The World Wide event was at El Cardonal at Diamante in Mexico and Bermuda is another coastal resort course. This season, Taylor finished T9 in the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open and T10 at the Sony Open.
The first thoroughbred for Vidanta: Taylor Pendrith
- Win: +2500 at DraftKings (0.8u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +250 at BetMGM (0.72u to win 1.82u)
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Davis Thompson
Over the last 40 rounds, Thompson is sixth on my Bet The Number model. He is 13th in SG: APP, 11th in APP shots from 200+ yards out, 13th in Par 5 scoring, and 18th in Par 3 scoring over that span. Thompson tied for 15th in his last start at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, which is played at another score-able Par 71 but has a much tougher field.
Davis misses a lot of fairways but has gained distance on the field with the driver in 17 of his past 18 events. Accuracy OTT isn’t a priority at Vidanta since the fairway-hit rate is nearly 5 percent higher than the PGA Tour average. Thompson’s only missed cut in his last 10 starts was at the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open in January.
Davis Thompson hits a tee shot on Hole No. 3 Sunday in The American Express 2024 at Pete Dye Stadium Course in La Quinta, California. (Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
(Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
He shot 2-under par and gained strokes with his irons but was 10 percent less accurate OTT compared to the field. Accuracy OTT is much more important at Torrey Pines. Plus, the "missed cut" doesn’t sound as bad when you consider he was -2. I’m willing to give Thompson a mulligan for his Farmers finish because he hasn’t shot over-par since the Memorial Tournament in June 2023.
The second thoroughbred for Vidanta: Davis Thompson
- Win: +3500 at DraftKings (0.57u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +150 at BetMGM (1.04u to 1.57u)
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Jake Knapp
Knapp is off to a great start in his rookie season. He’s made the cut in three of his four events. Knapp has a T3 at the Farmers and T28 in the Phoenix Open in the past two events. Seven of those eight rounds were Under-par and the other was Even-par.
Jake Knapp hits a bunker shot during the 2024 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
(Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Two of Knapp’s strengths — ball speed and Sand Saves — suit Vidanta. We already discussed how Vidanta is a "Bomber’s Paradise". Adding to that, there are 106 bunkers at Vidanta, which ranks third for any course on the PGA Tour. Over the last 40 rounds, Knapp ranks fourth in this field in Ball Speed and third in Sand Saves.
The third thoroughbred for Vidanta: Jake Knapp
- Win: +4000 at FanDuel (0.5u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +175 at BetMGM (0.86u to win 1.5u)
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Sam Stevens
Per Fantasy National, Stevens leads the field for total SG in windy weather conditions and ranks fifth in total SG at crossover courses to Vidanta. Last season, Stevens finished T15 in the Puerto Rico Open, T3 in the Corales Puntacana Championship, and second at the Valero Texas Open. The Puerto Rico Open and Corales Championship are both played at coastal resort courses with slow Paspalum greens.
Sam Stevens plays his shot on the 15th hole in the Travelers Championship 2023 in Cromwell, Connecticut. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
(Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, Stevens hammers the ball OTT. Over the last 80 rounds, he ranks eighth in SG: OTT and 10th in driving distance, according to Bet The Number. Stevens is 12th in APP shots from 200+ yards out and 21st in Sand Save rate over that span too. Again, there are a ton of APP shots from 200+ yards and 106 bunkers at Vidanta.
The fourth thoroughbred for Vidanta: Sam Stevens
- Win: +6600 at BetMGM (0.30u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +250 at BetMGM (0.52u to win 1.30u)
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Mexico Open 2024 'One-And-Done' Pick: Taylor Pendrith
Through the first six events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm in a tie for 1,279th place out of 4,400 entries with $1,402,480 collected.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
Finau and Nicolai Højgaard will be the most popular One-And-Done picks for the Mexico Open since Finau is the favorite and defending champion and Højgaard has the second-best odds. Meaning, my Pendrith pick could be a slight zag on the pool. Granted, Taylor should be popular too because of this watered-down field. Regardless, I'd prefer to save Finau for the Houston Open or 3M Open because he's won those events in recent seasons.
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