Mets And Mariners Pitching Should Pave Way For Under To Hit

Mets vs. Mariners, 10:10 ET

There are not one, but two, of my do not bet on or against list pitchers on the hill today. Although they are playing in different games, I am avoiding them because we are lucky enough to get all the teams back on the diamond after yesterday's off day for the majority of clubs. Those two pitchers, in case you were wondering, are Mitch Keller and Miles Mikolas. I will mention I won my last bet on Mikolas, but I'm not tempting fate. Instead, I'm going to play a game between two playoff hopefuls as the Mets take on the Mariners.

The Wild Card race in the National League might be the most interesting race of the past few seasons. Last year was cool because it was the first year. This year has added intrigue because virtually all but three teams now have a shot to take one of the Wild Card spots. The Mets looked like they were going to be one of the three teams that had no shot, but they've transformed themselves since the middle of June and are the proud owner of the third Wild Card spot if the season ended today. They have a +41 run differential, which has also come over the span of this turnaround. They didn't do all that much to improve the club at the trade deadline, but my thought is they were finally playing well, the team might've figured it wasn't worth tinkering too much. Still, if the team does make the playoffs, I don't think it matters because I don't think they have the pitching to advance. Their opening starter for the playoffs is probably Jose Quintana, who takes the ball today. Quintana is 6-7 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, both of those numbers look good overall, and are in the top 50 of the league. Part of the Mets success can be attributed to his performance - since June 15th, he has gone 52 innings and allowed 13 earned runs. His most recent start wasn't the most sharp outing of his season - he went just five innings and allowed three earned runs on three hits and four walks. The Mariners with experience against Quintana have fared pretty well against him, going 18-for-60 with 14 RBIs. 

Apr 17, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller (50) delivers a pitch first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners are in the heat of a battle with the Astros for the division. As of today, they are technically in second place, but they are also tied with the Astros for the division. While that isn't the only path to the playoffs, it is probably the most likely way to get there. Seattle is four games back of the Wild Card race, and they have a couple of teams to pass before getting to the Wild Card spot. But, if they have a shot at the Wild Card, then the Rangers still should be considered threats to win the AL West at 5.5 games back. The biggest issue for the Mariners is the same thing I've talked about multiple times - they are not an offensive threat. Even the additions they made at the deadline won't push them far enough if they make the postseason. The whole thing is sad because their pitching staff has been very good this season. Bryce Miller takes the rock today and brings with him an 8-7 record, a 3.62 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP. Miller was outstanding in July, going 25 innings and allowing just five earned runs, resulting in a 1.80 ERA. He didn't look quite as sharp in his first August start where he allowed four earned runs over 4.1 innings. He doesn't have much experience against the Mets in the past, as the team only has two hitters who have faced him, and they've combined to go 2-for-6. 

While the Mariners aren't a team that I think has a lot of offensive firepower, they don't often need it with their pitching staff. Miller has been really good overall this season, and even when he does have a poor start, he rebounds from it rather well. Quintana has been solid this season, but I do think the Mariners can get to him in this game. I'd lean to them winning. I'm going to take the under 8.5 for the game though. Both starters have performed well over the past months and I think we can get a good result here. Back the under. 

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