Will Mets Magic Continue In July?

Mets vs. Nationals, 6:45 ET

It is the week of the 4th of July which means that we have only a few games on this Monday because Major League Baseball wants to have all of the teams playing on Thursday. It actually is a surprisingly smart move from the MLB. However, it probably will backfire because I really don't know how many people are going to be sitting inside watching games. That leaves us with just three games to choose from today before everyone gets back to work tomorrow with a full slate of games. Today we will take on the series opener for the four-game set between the Mets and Nationals.

This will be the first of seven games between the two teams in the first 11 days of July, so they will be very familiar with each other. So far for the season, the Mets have won all three games against the Nationals, and the Mets weren't even playing very good baseball when they swept the Nationals. They are now playing some of the best baseball in the entire sport. They did lose their series against the Astros this weekend, but this was the only series they lost in June. In fact, they had split or won every series since May 30th. It was also just the second time this month that they have lost two games in a row. They went 16-8 in the month of June. Now that it is July, they have to hope their magic continues and it wasn't just a hot run. Despite the success, they were only above .500 for one day of the entire month. That is a reflection of how far they came, and for New York fans, how far they could potentially go. Tonight they have David Peterson on the hill. Peterson has a 3-0 record and a 3.67 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. I do think the WHIP is a bit of a concern and he walked 12 hitters in 22 innings last month. He allowed nine earned runs so it really didn't come back to haunt him too much, but that's a dangerous game to play. He did face the Nationals once this year and it was one of his better games of the season as he went 6.2 innings and allowed just five hits and two earned runs. He only allowed two walks in that game though. 

Jun 25, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore (1) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Nationals are still treading water this season, and despite not being above .500, they are a couple of good series away from finding their way above the mark. They did not have quite as good of a month as the Mets, but most Major League teams didn't. They ended up going 13-14 for the month, which isn't terrible, but they had two winning streaks of three games or more, and two losing streaks of four games as well. Currently, they've lost five of their past six games and six of their past seven. They also just wrapped up a very long nine-game losing streak where they had to go from Denver to San Diego back to Tampa before returning home for today's game. The Nationals weren't expected to be a very good team, and right now they are probably performing above expectations. Tonight they have MacKenzie Gore on the bump in hopes of stealing this series opener for the Nationals. Gore has a 6-7 record with a 3.60 and a 1.39 WHIP. His numbers are obviously very similar to Peterson. June was his worst month of the season and he had two very poor outings where he allowed a total of 11 earned runs in 9.1 innings. The rest of the month, he allowed just four earned runs in 17 innings over three starts. He allowed 43 baserunners over 26.1 innings. That is fairly in line with the rest of his season as he allowed 75 baserunners over 58.2 innings the rest of the year. He did face the Mets once and allowed 6 earned runs over 4.1 innings. In that game he allowed seven hits and four walks. 

If we are going based on who the better team is, I think we have to take the Mets in this game. They are playing solid baseball despite the losses to the Astros. The Nationals are not a winning team at home, but I do think it should help them that they are finally back at home instead of on this long road trip. They also have to know that this is a rather important series. I don't think the total is a great option. I could see both starters delivering a good game, and I could also see them allowing four or more runs each. I do think this is a coinflip, but when I see it, I think the Mets win this one over the Nationals and to give myself a bit of protection, I'll take the first five innings at -106 for the Mets. 

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