2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Championship Spread, Total Bets: UConn Vs. Purdue

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The Men's NCAA Tournament 2024 national championship between the reigning champion UConn Huskies (36-3) and Purdue Boilermakers (34-4) tips off Monday, April 8th at 9:20 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. It's a ridiculously late start for the college basketball title game. But, the NCAA wants to make sure all time zones have enough time to commute home from work. 

Purdue's path to the 2024 NCAA National Championship 
  • Round of 64: Grambling State, 78-50
  • Round of 32: Utah State, 106-67
  • Sweet 16: Gonzaga, 80-68
  • Elite Eight: Tennessee, 72-66
  • Final Four: NC State, 63-50
UConn's path to the 2024 NCAA National Championship 
  • Round of 64: Stetson, 91-52
  • Round of 32: Northwestern, 75-58
  • Sweet 16: San Diego State, 82-52
  • Elite Eight: Illinois, 77-52
  • Final Four: Alabama, 86-72

The look-ahead line before the 2024 Final Four made Connecticut -5.5 favorites over Purdue. The market thought those odds were too cheap and steamed the Huskies up to -6.5 or even -7 at some sportsbooks. According to several sports betting reporters, most of the action is on UConn winning its 2nd straight national championship Monday. 

That said, prominent college basketball gurus, such as Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam say Connecticut is 2-3 points better than Purdue. Per Ken Pom, the Huskies are 1st in offensive efficiency nationally and 4th defensively. While the Boilermakers are 3rd in offensive efficiency and 12th on the other side of the court. 

READ: UConn Rolls Alabama To Set Up Classic Big Man Duel With Purdue For National Title

The matchup to watch is Purdue C, and back-to-back Naismith Men's College Player of the Year, Zach Edey vs. UConn C Donovan Clingan. Edey has dominated the tourney, averaging 28.0 points and 15.4 rebounds per game. Yet, Clingan is 7-foot-2 and one of the best defensive bigs in the country. Most teams have to double Edey whereas the Huskies don't. 

Purdue Boilermakers C Zach Edey posts up Tennessee Volunteers PF Tobe Awaka during the NCAA Tournament 2024 Elite Eight at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)

Purdue Boilermakers C Zach Edey posts up Tennessee Volunteers PF Tobe Awaka during the NCAA Tournament 2024 Elite Eight at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)

Due partially to Edey's gravitational pull, the Boilermakers have the 2nd-best 3-point percentage in the nation. However, Clingan's size and paint presence allow Connecticut to extend its perimeter defense. UConn is 2nd in defensive 2-point field goal percentage and 50th in 3-point attempt rate, per Ken Pom. Plus, the Huskies are bigger at every other position except for center. 

Since Purdue has to play through Edey, both teams play at a slow pace, and the public loves betting on Overs in championship games, the UNDER 145 (-110) at Caesars is my favorite look here. Connecticut is 300th out of 362 D-1 schools in tempo and the Boilermakers are 244th, according to Ken Pom. 

Finally, both teams are great on the defensive glass, don't force a lot of turnovers, and don't commit reckless fouls. Meaning, there should be a ton of long one-and-done possessions in UConn-Purdue. Since neither defense is aggressive, I'm not expecting either team to get to the foul line often. 

Best Bet for the 2024 NCAA Championship: 1.1u on UNDER 145 (-110) in Purdue-UConn at Caesars 

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I'm less excited to bet a side in the 2024 national championship. It's tough to talk yourself into jumping in front of the train known as UConn. And I know the "due theory" is sucker logic, which is when a bettor says a team "cannot cover or win another game". This applies to Purdue-UConn though. 

Connecticut's backers were lucky to cash a "Huskies -10" bet vs. Alabama in the Final Four. The Crimson Tide were covering that game for 37:30 minutes before UConn pulled away late. Purdue has a much better defense than ‘Bama, so Connecticut won't be able to win by margin as easily. 

The Boilermakers have performed nearly as well vs. the spread as the Huskies. Purdue is 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. ranked opponents, 9-2-1 ATS in neutral-site games, and 5-0 ATS in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Lastly, this is an old-school Fade the Public bet since most of the action will be on UConn ATS by tip-off. 

Bet 0.6u on Purdue Boilermakers +7.5 (-120) at BetMGM

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