Memorial Tournament 2024 Betting Card From A Gambler Who Just Nailed The RBC Canadian Open Winner

We head to Jack’s Place for the Memorial Tournament 2024 this week. This is one of three "signature events" with a cut on the PGA TOUR in 2024. The other two are the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Genesis Invitational. All the PGA TOUR’s best tee up at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio in a 71-golfer field. At stake is a $4 million paycheck and a handshake from the man himself, Jack Nicklaus.

Muirfield is Nicklaus’s ode to Augusta National, host of The Masters. A Par-72 at 7,571 yards, Jack’s Place is the fifth-toughest course on TOUR. It is the second-hardest course to gain strokes around-the-green (ARG) on TOUR behind Augusta. Both have firm, fast and undulating Bentgrass greens. There are 12 holes with water danger at Jack’s Place. Golfweek reported Muirfield had the 3rd-most balls hit into the water from 2003-21.

That said, I've buried the lede, which is ya boy hit his second outright of the 2024 PGA TOUR season with Robert MacIntyre at last week's RBC Canadian Open. At +8000 odds, MacIntyre added 21 units (u) to my bankroll. Unfortunately, my other RBC Canadian Open bets lost, so I only won 16u last week. I'm still stuck -38.86u heading into the Memorial, but I'm a couple of tough beats away from a winning season and I predict I'll get above $0 by year's end. 

Memorial Tournament 2024 Betting Card 

Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies and the PGA Tour. 

‘Horses for the Course’ 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday, June 4th.

Collin Morikawa (+1400)

Morikawa is third in total strokes gained (SG) over the last 20 rounds, per Bet The Number. He is fourth in my Memorial Tournament Eyeball Test behind Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Viktor Hovland. The two-time major champion plays well at difficult golf courses, including Muirfield and Augusta, again, the biggest comp to Jack’s Place. 

Collin finished fifth in the 2022 Masters, T10 last year, and T3 in April. Last year, Morikawa was two shots back of the lead entering Round 4 before withdrawing with back spasms. He lost to Patrick Cantlay in a playoff at the Memorial in 2021 and won the 2020 Workday Charity Open at Muirfield. 

Collin Morikawa shakes hands with Patrick Cantlay on 18 following their playoff hole during the final round of the 2021 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK)

As a result of his short-game being on point, Morikawa has contended in recent starts. Collin followed up his T3 at the 2024 Masters with a ninth at the RBC Heritage ("signature event"), T16 at the Wells Fargo Championship ("signature event" and host of the 2025 PGA Championship), T4 at the 2024 PGA Championship, and fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. 

He has gained strokes ARG in his last five starts with PGA TOUR’s shot-link data and four of the previous five on the greens, per DataGolf.com. Morikawa had respectable finishes at the RBC and Wells Fargo despite losing strokes with his irons. Aside from Scheffler, Collin is the best iron player on TOUR and is second in driving accuracy this season. If Morikawa is chipping and putting well, he’s a threat to win any tournament. 

BET 1.6 units (u) on Collin Morikawa (+1400) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u. 

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Viktor Hovland (+1800)

For whatever reason, Hovland stopped working with swing coach Joe Mayo this offseason after winning the 2023 BMW and TOUR Championships and Ryder Cup at the end of last season. It was stupid. He "went down rabbit holes", per PGATOUR.com, and it messed his game up. Hovland is having a terrible season. Before placing third at the 2024 PGA Championship, his best finish this year was a T19 at The Genesis Invitational. 

The six-time PGA TOUR champion had the second-best odds, at 10-1, behind Scheffler to win the first event of the season, The Sentry. In his last start, the PGA Championship, Hovland was 40-1. That should be his low point because Hovland looked like his old self at Valhalla Golf Club for the PGA. 

Viktor Hovland fist pumps after making a putt on the 18th green in a playoff hole during the 2024 at Muirfield. (Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports)

Per Bet The Number, Viktor gained strokes in the four key golf stats: Off-the-Tee (OTT), Approach (APP), Around-the-Green (ARG), and Putting at the PGA. This begs the question: What changed? Answer: He came to his senses and re-hired Mayo, the swing coach Viktor was working with last year when he had his best season on TOUR. 

Hovland won the first "big boy" tournament of his career, the Memorial, then the second round of the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs (BMW) and TOUR Championship. Now that Mayo is back, Viktor will contend at the remaining majors and "signature events". 

BET 1.25u on Viktor Hovland (+1800) at Caesars to profit 22.5u. 

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Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)

‘Deki won a green jacket in 2022 and the 2014 Memorial was his first win on the PGA TOUR. Matsuyama cashed a top-20 bet for me in the 2023 Memorial, and it looked like he might win the thing. His 65 (-7) Friday was the best round in last year’s Memorial. Hideki was -9 through 38 holes before melting down and shooting a third-round 75 (+3). But, Hovland won the 2024 Memorial with a -7, so Matsuyama’s -9 would’ve been good enough.

Hideki Matsuyama plays his shot on the ninth fairway in the second round of the 2023 Memorial at Muirfield. (Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports)

And the nine-time PGA TOUR champion is playing better this year. Last season, Hideki was plagued with back and neck injuries. He’s still dealing with injuries. But, he won The Genesis Invitational, a "signature event", in February. Matsuyama has three more T12 or better finishes in 2024: T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational ("signature event"), T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship ("signature event"), and T7 at the Valero Texas Open. 

Matsuyama is sixth in my 32-round model at Bet The Number. He’s been fantastic ARG and with his long irons lately. In fact, Hideki leads the field in both SG: ARG and SG on APP shots from 175+ yards out over the last 32 rounds. Matsuyama knows his way around Muirfield and comes into the Memorial in good form. Ultimately, Hideki is fifth in my 2024 Memorial Tournament Eyeball Test and is +3500 by the odds. 

BET 0.5u on Hideki Matsuyama (+4500) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u. 

• I'm also putting a 0.5u bet on Hideki Matsuyama Top-10 (+275) to profit 1.5u at BetMGM.

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Will Zalatoris (+7000) 

I’m "buying low" on Zalatoris. He’s performed worse than his odds in five of his last six starts: Missed cut at THE PLAYERS, T74 at the Houston Open, T44 at the RBC Heritage, missed cut at the Zurich Classic, T60 at the Wells Fargo, and T43 at the PGA. However, Muirfield is a better course for Zalatoris than those other places. 

Willy Z finished T5 in his first Memorial as a full-time TOUR pro in 2022. He plays well at Augusta, which, like Muirfield, has Bentgrass greens. Zalatoris is a notoriously bad putter. But, he was second in his Masters debut in 2021, T6 in 2022, and T9 in April, and gained strokes putting in all three career starts at Augusta. 

Given how tough Muirfield can play in certain years, the winning score could be -15 or less. That’s a score he can make a tough course. Zalatoris shot a -15 in his only career win on TOUR, the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, another comp course to Muirfield, because both have a lot of water danger. 

Will Zalatoris tees off on the 10th hole in the 2022 Memorial in Dublin, Ohio. (Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

Golfweek reported that from 2003-22, Muirfield had the third-most balls hit in the water of any course on TOUR, ahead of PGA National (fourth), and behind TPC Sawgrass (second) and Southwind (first). Muirfield and PGA National are both Nicklaus designs and TPC Sawgrass was designed by Nicklaus’s course architect mentor, Pete Dye. 

Regardless of the golf course designer, the bottom line is that Zalatoris plays well in difficult conditions. Will has gained strokes on APP and OTT in his last 10 majors, according to DataGolf.com. Before the 2024 Memorial odds came out, I wrote "My ‘buy price’ on Zalatoris at Muirfield is +7000 or better". 

BET 0.3u on Will Zalatoris (+7500) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u. 

• I'm also putting a 0.7u bet on Will Zalatoris Top-20 (+170 with ties) to profit 1.19u at DraftKings.

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Additional Finishing Position Bets 

Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings Sportsbooks. BetMGM doesn't apply "dead heat" rules and DraftKings now has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties". 

Scottie Scheffler Top-5 (-130): 1.3u to profit 1u 

Do you realize what needs to happen for Scheffler to finish outside the top-five? He was T8 at the PGA Championship last month despite becoming a father for the first time the weekend prior, getting arrested Friday, May 17th outside the golf course hours before his second-round tee time, and his caddie, Ted Scott, missing the third round to celebrate his daughter’s high school graduation. 

That’s insane.

Otherwise, Scheffler is having a hall-of-fame-caliber season. He has eight top-five finishes in 12 starts, including a T2 at the Charles Schwab two weeks ago. Scottie won four tournaments over five starts in March and April: The Arnold Palmer, THE PLAYERS, The Masters, and the RBC Heritage. Scheffler was T2 in the other, the Texas Children’s Houston Open, and missed a 5-foot putt on the final hole to force a playoff. 

READ: Scottie Scheffler In The Clear After Jefferson County Attorney Drops All Charges Against PGA Tour Star

Scottie ranks first on my 32-round model at Bet The Number and my 2024 Memorial Tournament Eyeball Test. Scheffler is the best ball striker on the planet, has great touch ARG, and has gained strokes with his putter in seven straight starts. This will be a jinx, but Scheffler finishing inside the top five of a golf tournament is a LOCK. 

Keegan Bradley Top-20 (+150): 0.75u to profit 1.13u

He is so close to putting it all together. Bradley finished T2 at the Charles Schwab two weeks ago while losing strokes with his irons. That’s usually his specialty; Keegan is 20th in SG: APP on TOUR this season. Entering the Charles Schwab, Bradley gained strokes with his irons in six straight starts, including three "signature events" and two majors. 

Besides back-to-back T8 finishes at the Memorial in 2015-16, Keegan’s results at Muirfield have been meh. But, he won the Travelers Championship last year ("signature event") and he’s second on TOUR this season in "Apex Height", which could help him land softly on Muirfield’s firm and fast greens. 

Keegan Bradley crosses the creek as he walks to the 14th green during the third round of the 2023 Memorial. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Bradley has gained strokes with his driver in 12 of his 13 career Memorials, according to Fantasy National. Finally, Bradley struggles putting, but Bentgrass is his best putting surface. Keegan has gained strokes on the greens in three visits to Muirfield.

Si Woo Kim Top-20 (+130): 0.8u to profit 1.04u. 

Muirfield rewards precision and Kim is one of the PGA TOUR's most accurate ball strikers. This season, Kim is eighth in SG: APP and fifth in driving accuracy. Si Woo has finished T18 or better in four consecutive Memorials: T18 in 2020, T9 in 2021, T13 in 2022, and fourth last year. 

Another reason Kim plays well at Muirfield is because he can save par when missing greens. Over the last 32 rounds, Si Woo is 11th in this field in SG: ARG, per Bet The Number. Muirfield is one of the toughest courses on TOUR for ARG play. In his last three Memorials, Kim was +2.2, +3.7, and +3.8 SG: ARG. 

Si Woo Kim hits from the gallery on the first hole in Round 4 of last year's Memorial at Muirfield. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Finally, Si Woo has seven top-20 finishes on TOUR this season. This includes a T14 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ("signature event"), T12 at the WM Phoenix Open, T6 at THE PLAYERS, T17 at the Houston Open, T18 at the RBC Heritage, T13 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and T16 at the Wells Fargo. 

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Memorial Tournament 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Viktor Hovland 

After 20 PGA TOUR events in the 2024 Mayo Cup, I'm 705th of 4,400 entries with $10,154,877 collected. My one-and-done choice for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open, Shane Lowry, added only $54,755 to my season-long balance. But, hey, that's an improvement over my previous two selections, which both missed the cut. Yet, Lowry's T33 in Canada took me out of the money in the Mayo Cup. 

Previous Picks

1. J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
2. Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
3. Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
4. Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
5. Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
6. Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
7. Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
8. Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
9. Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
10. Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
11. Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
12. Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
13. Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
14. Wyndham Clark for The Masters: Missed cut $0
15. Cameron Young for the RBC Heritage: T62 for $43,600
16. Adam Scott for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: $52,293
17. Rory McIlroy for the Wells Fargo Championship: $3,600,000
18. Jon Rahm for the PGA Championship: $0
19. Harris English for the Charles Schwab Challenge: $0
20. Shane Lowry for the RBC Canadian Open: $54,755

Jack Nicklaus gives a thumbs up to Viktor Hovland following his win at the 2024 Memorial Tournament. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY Network)

I hate that I'm picking Hovland because I know he'll be chalk this week. Nonetheless, it's make-or-break time for me in this contest and I need to add at least $1 million to my balance. Plus, I've used Scheffler, Morikawa, Xander, and Rory already. Finally, Valhalla is another Nicklaus design similar to Muirfield. Well, Hovland won at Muirfield last year, lit up Valhalla two weeks ago, and will contend in the Memorial again this week. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.