Maulin' Mets Will Continue Surge Against Rockies

Rockies vs. Mets, 1:40 ET

There comes a point as a fan where you have to decide if you're going to trust a team or not. If you root for the team, typically you are willing to put up with a lot of crap. I told my daughter that I hope the worst relationship she ever has is the one she has with a sports team. You know they are going to let you down more often than not, but it teaches you to forgive. I'm a Cubs fan, and the only time I've truly been rewarded was when they won the World Series. It was a top-5 moment of my life (and before you get crazy, I was there, so that contributed to it). I bring this all up because I'm genuinely curious if the Mets fans trust this club or not. Today should be a great day to trust them as they take on the Rockies.

Sometimes I feel like I write the same thing over and over about a team, but in the Rockies case, I don't play enough of their games, so I should share this again. If you ever see the Rockies on the road, it is probably a good idea to fade them. This season they are just 13-35 at the time of the writing which means they've lost almost three games for every one win. Last season, they were 22-59. The prior season, they were 27-54. In 2021? 26-54. It isn't just this team, it is the entire franchise that seemingly cannot play on the road. I didn't compare to other teams, but this to be one of the three worst road records in baseball over that time. They are on pace to lose another 50 road games this year. That will put them over 200 road loses in three years. Maybe that isn't as significant as I'm making it out to be but I still think it is a big deal. Not only are they losing, but they are losing badly. Of the 35 losses, they've lost 26 by two or more runs. That's almost 75% of their games. Tonight probably won't be much different but they at least have a chance with Cal Quantrill on the hill. Quantrill has a 6-7 record with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Those numbers aren't terrible for any pitcher, but especially not one that spends half of his time in Coors Field. I'm guessing he will be moved by the deadline, but it would help Colorado if he could put together a nice start here. He lasted just two innings in his last start, a road game against the Reds where he allowed five earned runs with two homers allowed in the two innings. His splits aren't drastic, but he is actually performing worse on the road. Mets hitters, have been good against him with 15 hits in 53 at-bats and almost half of those have gone for extra bases. Harrison Bader is a guy to consider for fantasy purposes as he is 5-for-7 against Quantrill and has three homers. 

Jun 29, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Cal Quantrill (47) pitches during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Where to begin with the Mets? I talked about it in the opening paragraph. Are the fans thinking the team is for real, or is this an elaborate ploy by the team to give them hope and suck them in again just to pull the rug out from underneath once again? Or, did something finally click? Did the offense figure everything out and will now be on a run until the end of the season? Certainly possible. They were collectively poor for so long and are now collectively good, so there really is no reason to expect that it can't last. At the time of this writing, they have scored at least six runs in four straight games. Since June 12th, the team is 20-8 and averaging six runs scored per game. That's likely not sustainable, but it certainly has given optimism to the Mets for the first time since the beginning of last season. I still think they need some true pitching. Guys like Jose Quintana are good, but probably not someone that will lead you to playoff wins. He has been great in back-to-back starts, going 14 innings and allowing just five hits and no runs to the Nationals. He has had a mixed bag of results with just seven quality starts over 18 outings, but the other starts really aren't bad, he just ends up going five innings. Rockies hitters have hit him well in the past with 22 hits in 64 at-bats. The good news for him is that only five of the hits have been for extra bases. 

You can't count on the Rockies to win a road game, and the price is typically baked in there. I think the team total for the Mets is arguably the best play. Here is my recommendation - take the Mets team total over 4.5 if it is reasonably juiced. The other way I'd consider playing it is to take the run line. I usually only play a run line if it is plus money but in this case, I do think Quintana is pitching well enough that even if we pay a small price we can do it. 

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