2 Matchup Bets For Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 At Bay Hill
I've stayed away from the head-to-head markets on the PGA Tour this season because I sucked betting them last season and it's been tough finding edges in the options offered by the legal U.S. sportsbooks. However, the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 (API) at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Florida is one of my favorite events on Tour and I've spent hours researching this event.
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With that in mind, I'm adding two tournament matchup bets to my 2024 API card. For both, I'm fading international players with proven American ball strikers. The international guys I'm fading have success on the DP World Tour but zero wins on the PGA Tour. The Americans I'm backing are studs with victories in the States.
Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 Head-to-Head Bets
Max Homa (+105) > Tommy Fleetwood
I'm prioritizing ball striking over short-game specialists for the Arnold Palmer. Over the last 24 rounds, Homa ranks 25th in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Ball-striking and Fleetwood is 51st, per Fantasy National. Plus, golfers must take advantage of the Par 5s at Bay Hill. Homa is 25th in SG: Par 5 and Fleetwood is 63rd over the last 24 rounds.
Furthermore, Bay Hill is one of the most predictive courses on the PGA Tour calendar and Homa has played better here in recent seasons. Homa finished T14 in the API last season (-4), T17 in 2022 (+2), and T10 in 2021 (-3). Fleetwood was T61 at Bay Hill last year (+3), T20 in 2022 (+3), and T10 in 2021.
Max Homa plays his shot from the 15th tee during The Masters 2023 at Augusta National. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Network)
While Homa typically plays better in his native California, he at least has true "win equity". Homa has six career wins on the PGA Tour and Fleetwood has none. Two of Homa's victories came in "big boy" events such as the 2021 Genesis Invitational and the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. Max also won the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, which is a crossover course to Bay Hill.
Bet 0.75u on Max Homa over Tommy Fleetwood (+105) at DraftKings
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Will Zalatoris (-115) > Min Woo Lee
The sportsbooks are mispricing these guys. Either Zalatoris is underrated or Lee is overrated or perhaps a little of both. Min Woo is already a fan favorite and has more recent wins, albeit on the DP World Tour. Plus, Willy Z is still finding his form after missing most of last season with a back injury.
But, Zalatoris appears to be rounding into form and Lee's inaccurate iron-play is a cause for concern. After missing the cut in his first start off the injury, Zalatoris finished T34 in the American Express (-18), T13 at the Farmers (-8), and T2 at the Genesis (-14), which is a "signature event" on the PGA Tour. Heck, Willy Z would've won the Genesis if Hideki Matsuyama didn't come out of nowhere to steal that event.
Will Zalatoris hits an approach shot at the 18th hole Sunday in The Genesis Invitational 2024 at Riviera Country Club. (Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports)
Min Woo ranks 106th in SG: Approach on Tour this season and 100th in SG: Putting. The water danger off-the-tee at Bay Hill forces golfers to leave their drivers in the bag and Lee's best club is his driver. Finally, Min Woo missed back-to-back cuts at the API with a +10 score last season and +13 in 2021. This just ain't the spot for Lee and Zalatoris is the better golfer anyhow.
Bet 0.86u on Will Zalatoris over Min Woo Lee at FanDuel
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.