The Masters 2024 Outright Bets, One-And-Done Pick: Hideki, Justin Thomas
If you told me three years ago I'd be this excited about any golf tournament, even The Masters 2024, I'd say you're crazy. I started gambling on golf when I was writing and podcasting for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire. My then-podcast co-host, Esten McLaren, is a weekly golf handicapper and he insisted we do golf betting podcasts for the 2021 majors.
Since I didn't want to sit there and host other people talking about betting, I decided to find some golf bets myself. After bricking the 1st three majors of the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season, I hit Collin Morikawa at 35-to-1 at The Open Championship and fell in love with golf gambling. From then on, I've gambled on almost every full-field event on TOUR. There's no greater feeling in sports betting than winning an outright golf bet.
Unfortunately, I've only cashed one outright ticket in the PGA TOUR 2024 season, Jake Knapp at the Mexico Open, and I continue to leak money in this racket. Through the Valero Texas Open, I'm -31.22u in 2024 and I'm PISSED about it. The only golfer that came through for me last week is Hideki Matsuyama, who finished T7 at the Valero and cashed a top-10 wager.
With that in mind, I might be switching up my golf gambling strategy. Typically, I bet a golfer's outright odds to profit 20u and add a placement, or finishing position, bet on that guy as insurance for him doing well but not winning. However, that strategy has put me into the hole and I'm leaking money. Because of this, I'll be doing fewer placement bets for my outright picks.
The Masters 2024 ‘Horses for the Course’
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
If you’re new to my weekly PGA TOUR betting articles, I always bet on Hideki. The 9-time PGA TOUR champion is my favorite golfer in the world and he consistently makes me money. If Deki could putt, he would’ve won at least twice as many events in his already decorated career.
However, Matsuyama can go pin-hunting with his elite ball striking. He is 15th in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) over the last 32 rounds and 6th in APP shots from 175+ yards out, according to Bet The Number.
Dustin Johnson presents Hideki Matsuyama with the green jacket after The Masters 2021. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)
Adding to that, Matsuyama is 3rd in the FedExCup standings on TOUR this season behind Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark. Hideki won the Genesis Invitational in February, a "signature event" played at a crossover course to Augusta (Riviera Country Club). He was T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March.
Most importantly, Matsuyama is the 2021 Masters champion and has finished T16 in his other three starts at Augusta since 2020. The 9-time PGA TOUR winner is the best around-the-green (ARG) player in the world and has gained at least +4.4 strokes ARG in four consecutive Masters. It's tough to hit the green in regulation at Augusta and Hideki is one of the few guys that card a birdie ARG.
The first thoroughbred for Augusta: Hideki Matsuyama
- Win: +2000 at FanDuel (1u to profit 20u)
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Wyndham Clark (+4000)
You’ll hear talking heads write off Clark because he’s making his Masters debut. Fuzzy Zoeller was the last debutant to win the Masters in 1979. But, Wyndham’s game fits Augusta and he won the 2023 U.S. Open at a place no one played at, the Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course.
Like Augusta, LACC is a long course with wide slopping fairways, elevation changes, and fast Bentgrass greens. Augusta is one of the longest courses on TOUR and golfers have to pull driver on 12 holes, per Bet The Number. Clark is 3rd in Ball Speed, 12th in driving distance, and 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) in my 32-round model at Bet The Number.
Wyndham Clark poses with the championship trophy after winning the 2023 U.S. Open at the Los Angeles Country Club. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, good recent form is a requirement for winning the Masters historically. Clark is 2nd in the FedExCup standings on TOUR this season. Wyndham has a win in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, a "signature event". He has back-to-back 2nd-place finishes to Scottie Scheffler in the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS last month.
Finally, golfers need to take advantage of the Par 5s at Augusta. Clark’s power can get him to the green in two on a lot of Par 5s. Because of this, Wyndham is 6th in Par 5 scoring average on TOUR this season.
The second thoroughbred for Augusta: Wyndham Clark
- Win: +4000 at FanDuel (0.5u to profit 20u)
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Justin Thomas (+4500)
Several elite golfers in this odds range are underperforming this season, such as Viktor Hovland (+3500), Will Zalatoris (+4000), Tony Finau (+4000), Patrick Cantlay (+4000), Collin Morikawa (+5000), and Tommy Fleetwood (+5000). That said, a couple of them will bust out of their slump at the Masters. It happens every season and JT is the guy I'm hitching my wagon to.
Thomas is the most accomplished golfer out of the guys above. JT is a 15-time PGA TOUR winner and a two-time major champion (2017 and 2022 PGA Championships). He has shown good form this season after missing the FedExCup Playoffs last season for the 1st time since he became a full-time player on TOUR in 2024.
Justin Thomas reacts to a putt during THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 at TPC Sawgrass in Florida. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)
JT was T3 at the American Express, T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, T12 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T12 at the Arnold Palmer. This season, Thomas is 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 6th in SG: APP. He's struggled of late, missing the cut at the Genesis and PLAYERS and finishing T64 at the Valspar Championship in his previous start.
Thomas was -5 after 36 holes at the Valspar before shooting a 79 (+8) in the 3rd round. He lost seven strokes putting in the 3rd round of the Valspar. This has been his biggest issue for the past two seasons: Thomas is 174th in SG: Putting on TOUR this season. But, Augusta has some of the trickiest greens in the world and there's a precedent for bad putters winning a green jacket.
And while he's never won The Masters, Thomas has played well enough at Augusta to give me confidence he can break through in 2024. He did miss his 1st cut at The Masters last season. Otherwise, JT has six top-25 finishes at The Masters, highlighted by a solo 4th in 2020 and a T8 in 2022.
The third thoroughbred for Augusta: Justin Thomas
- Win: +4500 at DraftKings (0.44u to profit 20u)
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Cameron Smith (+5000)
The 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year rounds out my Masters 2024 betting card. Two of my picks are bombers, the other is a wizard ARG, and Smith is the best putter in the world. He’s gained strokes on the greens in 10 of his last 11 majors with shot-link data, per DataGolf.com.
This includes +1.99 SG: Putting in the 2023 U.S. Open, +1.92 SG: Putting at the 2023 PGA Championship, +0.94 SG: Putting at last year’s Masters, and +2.98 SG: Putting in his 2022 Open Championship victory.
Adding to that, Smith has played well at Augusta in the past. He finished T34 in the 2023 Masters, T3 in 2022, T10 in 2021, T2 in 2020, and T5 in 2018. The wide fairways at Augusta benefit Smith, who can be errant OTT. Smith’s last season on the PGA TOUR was 2021-22 and he ranked 135th in driving accuracy.
Cameron Smith lines up his putt the eighth hole during The Masters 2021 at Augusta National Golf Club. (Andrew Davis Tucker-Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY Sports)
However, Smith is so nasty at putting he won three events on TOUR that season: Sentry Tournament of Champions, THE PLAYERS Championship, and The Open Championship. Officially, he ranked 6th in SG: Putting on TOUR in 2021-22. In fact, Smith is so good with the flat-stick, that his approach play is underrated.
In his last 30 rounds with shot-link data, which doesn’t include the LIV Tour, Smith is 20th in this field for SG: APP and 2nd in APP from 175+ yards out, according to Bet The Number. Lastly, Smith was 10th in SG: APP on TOUR in 2021-22 when he won those three "big boy" events.
The fourth thoroughbred for Augusta: Cameron Smith
- Win: +5000 at Caesars (0.4u to profit 20u)
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Cameron Young (+5500)
After missing the cut in his 1st start at Augusta in 2022, Young tied for 7th last year. His putting is hit-or-miss. For example, Young was +4.7 SG: Putting at the 2023 Masters and -3.4 SG: Putting in 2022. When Cameron putts well, he’s in contention and Bentgrass is his best putting surface.
Young was +2.4 SG: Putting in a solo 2nd finish at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago, +3.9 SG: Putting in a T4 at the Cognizant Classic last month, and +5.2 SG: Putting in a T8 in the WM Phoenix Open in February, according to Fantasy National.
Cameron Young hits from the fairway during the 3rd round of The Masters 2023 at the Augusta National Golf Club. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Network)
Plus, his power allows Young to be creative with how he attacks courses. Over the last 32 rounds, Young is 16th in this field for SG: OTT, 7th in Ball Speed, and 9th in APP shots from 175+ yards out, per Bet The Number. With two years of experience at Augusta under his belt, Young can use his power to navigate this course better.
Ultimately, Young's game is suited for tough courses and majors. On top of his T7 at last year’s Masters, Young tied for 8th at the 151st Open Championship in 2023, solo 2nd in the 2022 Open, and T3 at the 2022 PGA Championship. He’s gained strokes on APP in seven straight majors and OTT in eight of his 10 career major starts, per DataGolf.com.
The fifth thoroughbred for Augusta: Cameron Young
- Win: +5500 at FanDuel (0.36u to profit 20u)
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The Masters 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Wyndham Clark
After the 13 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season). I'm tied for 689th out of 4,400 entries with $6,404,229 collected. If the Mayo Cup ended today, I would've profited $200 on my $200 entry.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
- Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
- Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
- Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
Clark is the highest-ranked golfer on my models that I still have available. Granted, my model might have a blind spot for LIV Tour players because their data is hard to come by. However, Clark might be a zag play for this league because most people will rule him out since he's making his Masters debut and LIV players are in the field.
Wyndham Clark walks down the No. 2 fairway during a practice round for The Masters 2024 at Augusta National Golf Club. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Network)
I'm overlooking that because Clark is solid throughout the bag and has the 2nd-best form on TOUR entering the Masters behind Scheffler. Clark ranks 15th on TOUR in SG: Putting and 3rd in both Par 4 and Par 4 scoring averages. Plus, I just have a feeling Clark has a big week at Augusta and I want to go against the grain.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.