Four Outright Bets, 'One-And-Done' Pick For The Masters 2025
Despite my awful season thus far gambling on the PGA TOUR, betting on golf is my favorite hobby. The odds come out Monday. You start building your betting cards Tuesdays. Wednesdays, you finalize your picks. Then from Thursday to Sunday, you're hopefully sweating your bets. So, not counting the NFL, The Masters 2025 is the best week of the sports calendar.
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With that in mind, I'm gambling my a** off this week (responsibly, of course). Below are my outright bets to win and One-And-Done pick for the 2025 Masters. On top of that, I'll be adding placement and head-to-head bets to my 2025 Masters betting card later this week.
‘Four Horsemen’ For The 2025 Masters
The odds are via Oddschecker.com at the time of writing.
- Bet 2.5 units (u) on Rory McIlroy (+650) at FanDuel.
- Bet 0.33u on Robert MacIntyre (+6000) at DraftKings.
- Bet 0.3u on Cameron Smith (+6600) at BetRivers.
- Bet 0.1u on Cameron Young (+20000) at DraftKings.
Rory McIlroy (+650)
Essentially, the best golfer in the world at the time had won The Masters in four of the last five years. Dustin Johnson in 2020. Scottie Scheffler in 2022 and last year. Jon Rahm in 2023. Well, Rory is the best golfer right now, which is different from most years entering The Masters.
McIlroy leads the PGA TOUR in scoring average and total Strokes Gained (SG) this season and has won twice already: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ("signature event") and THE PLAYERS Championship ("golf’s fifth major"). This is the first time Rory has ever won two tournaments in a season before The Masters.
Also, people forget that McIlroy is only 35 years old, which isn’t that old. Phil Mickelson didn’t win his first of six majors, the 2004 Masters, until he was 33. Rory won his fourth, and most recent, major, the 2014 PGA Championship, when he was 25 years old. His skills haven’t waned. McIlroy is still one of the most powerful ball-strikers in the world, and he has an underrated short game.
This is a rare time when there is value in +650 odds to win a golf tournament. The Masters has the smallest field of any major, Rory should be the betting favorite instead of Scottie Scheffler, and you can make an argument against the players right behind McIlroy on the odds board. More than ever, this year is "If not, then when" for Rory at Augusta.
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Robert MacIntyre (+6000)
The last and only time I bet Rory outright was at the 2024 RBC Canadian Open. Because McIlroy was +400, I only had room on my betting card for two longshots: Nicolai Højgaard at +9000 and the 2024 RBC Canadian Open champion, MacIntyre, at +8000. The Scot winning the Canadian Open was among my five golf outright winners in 2024.
I’m going back to the well for The Masters because MacIntyre fits into my limited budget again, and lefties have been successful at Augusta. Left-handers have won the Masters six times since 2003: Mike Weir once (2003), Phil Mickelson three times (2004, 2006, and 2010), and Bubba Watson (2012 and 2014). Something about the left-to-right ball flight does well at Augusta.
Honestly, that’s over my head, but I’ve read from smarter golf content creators that Augusta sets up well for lefties. Regardless, MacIntyre is fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 12th in Par 5 scoring, and eighth in SG: Off the Tee (OTT) on TOUR this season. He has a T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and ninth at THE PLAYERS this year.
Robert MacIntyre hits a tee shot during The Masters 2022 at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. (Photo credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Granted, MacIntyre mostly gains strokes OTT because of his driving accuracy rather than driving distance. However, he has the lefty edge, and it’s important to hit the right parts of the fairway at Augusta to set yourself up for a better look at the tricky pin locations. Plus, the majority of the scoring at Augusta is done on the Par-5s, so you have to beat up on them.
In his only two Masters, Bobby Mac finished T12 as a debutant in 2021 and T23 in 2022. Finally, MacIntyre has legit "win equity" with two victories on the PGA TOUR last season in Canada and the Genesis Scottish Open, which is like a major for MacIntyre since he is Scottish.
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Cameron Smith (+6600)
The 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year hasn't done sh*t since going to the LIV Tour in 2023, but he always plays well at Augusta. Smith has five top-10 finishes in eight career Masters: T6 last year, T3 in 2022, T10 in 2021, T2 in 2020, and T5 in 2018.
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If he wasn't terrible OTT, Smith would be a top-five golfer because he has the best short-game in the world. He's gained strokes chipping and on the greens in six consecutive Masters. Last year, he lost strokes OTT and with his irons, but was +10.3 SG combined with chipping and putting.
Yet, Augusta has the widest fairways on TOUR. The Old Course at St. Andrews in Scotland, where Smith won the 150th Open Championship, also has super-wide fairways. Ultimately, I'm overlooking Smith's bad driving since he can win The Masters by finishing in the top-five with his irons, around the green, and putting.
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Cameron Young (+20000)
Obviously, this is "price dependent" since most of my Masters 2025 betting budget has been used on McIlroy. That said, Young was T9 at the Masters last year and T7 two years ago. Young probably won't win his first PGA TOUR event at Augusta, but crazier things have happened, and he has the ceiling to win a major.
Furthermore, Young has gained 7.6 strokes on the greens at Augusta in 2023-24 and 11.2 strokes OTT. His best finish in a major was second at the 150th Open, which Smith won. Driving distance is a difference-maker at the Masters, and Young is one of the longest golfers OTT in the world. Again, he probably won't win, but 200-to-1 plus Young's skill set good enough to get my money.
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The Masters 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Rory McIlroy
Previous Picks (722nd with $5,503,247)
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0), MC
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640), T29
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0), MC
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500), T13
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0), MC
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714), T17
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800), eighth
- Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0), MC
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000),🥇
- THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750), T14
- Valspar Championship: Michael Kim ($55,843), T28
- Texas Children's Houston Open: Si Woo Kim ($0), MC
- Valero Texas Open: Denny McCarthy ($113,050), T18
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.