Masters 2023 Gambling: DJ, Morikawa Among 'Horses For The Course'

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According to the Twitter golf gamblers, course history at Augusta National Golf Club is more important for picking the Masters Tournament winner than any other PGA Tour event.

I.e. "horses for the courses" apply more here than any other course. It's part of the reason reigning Masters champion Scottie Scheffler is the favorite (+700). The other part is he's No. 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR).

Instead of repeating myself, I'll just point you to the link below for the Masters Monday odds, the Augusta course preview, and key stats included in my model.

MASTERS 2023 BETTING ODDS, COURSE, FIELD, KEY STATS PREVIEW

'Horses for the Course' at the 2023 Masters

Collin Morikawa

As one of “my guys,” I’m really counting on Morikawa to pull me out of the crapper. Plus Morikawa is in a five-way tie for the 6th-best odds to win the Masters and that’s too good to pass up.

The market is down on Morikawa because he hasn’t won a tourney since the 2021 Open (British) Championship. However, he is 6th in this field in total Strokes Gained (SG) over the last 24 rounds and on the doorstep of winning again.

Open Champion, Collin Morikawa with the Claret Jug at The 149th Open at Royal St George’s Golf Club in Sandwich, England.

Open Champion, Collin Morikawa with the Claret Jug at The 149th Open at Royal St George’s Golf Club in Sandwich, England. (Oisin Keniry/Getty Images)

With Morikawa, I’m getting a lot of fairways and Greens-in-regulations gained, elite approach play and poor putting. The thing about the Masters is good putting isn’t a “must have” to win the green jacket.

According to Ron Klos of Betsperts, 101st in SG: Putting is the average rank of the past 15 Masters champions leading into the tourney. Ball-striking (BS) is the key to winning the Masters.

Over his last 50 rounds, Morikawa is 4th in this field for SG: BS and 1st in Good Drives gained. It’s almost a guarantee Collin is hitting his 2nd shots from the fairway and putting for birdie. He usually does in the majors.

Morikawa is the 2020 PGA Champion, 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year, and has five T8’s or better in his 12 career majors. Collin finished T18 in the 2021 Masters and T5 last year by shooting a 67 on the final day.

Morikawa after chipping in for birdie from the 18th green-side bunker during Round 4 of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia.

Morikawa after chipping in for birdie from the 18th green-side bunker during Round 4 of the Masters at Augusta. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Sure, Morikawa lost by six strokes to Scottie Scheffler and he technically backdoor'd a T5. But, in the Masters, two good rounds on the weekend puts you in contention.

Morikawa’s 74 on Saturday wasn’t good enough, clearly. That’s why I’m only sprinkling on “Morikawa to win” and betting his Top-10 and Top-20 lines heavier. 

1st Masters Thoroughbred: Collin Morikawa

Dustin Johnson

Are we sure DJ is one of the 10 best golfers in the world? Johnson is 68th in the OWGR. There is no way that’s true. Data Golf ranks DJ as the 15th-best golfer in the world. That sounds closer to the truth.

Golf isn’t a sport where game speed is impossible to simulate. If Johnson was going back into his NFL or MLB job, okay, fine, I’d probably fade that team.

DJ is awarded the green jacket by 2019 Masters champion Tiger Woods after Johnson won the 2020 Masters.

DJ is awarded the green jacket by 2019 Masters champion Tiger Woods after Johnson won the 2020 Masters. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Since DJ owns a green jacket, he has a lifetime invitation. Regardless of how this LIV thing shakes out, Johnson is going to be in the Masters.

Now is probably the best time to take either DJ or Brooks Koepka. If any of these LIV guys play well in the Masters, their numbers are going to move closer to the “PGA Tour days”. 

Furthermore, why wouldn’t DJ crush the ball off-the-tee like he always does? Johnson’s average drive goes 322 yards, which would be good for 2nd behind Rory McIlroy if he still played on the PGA Tour.

Johnson walks off the green with then-fiancée Paulina Gretzky after winning the 2020 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia.

Johnson walks off the green with then-fiancée Paulina Gretzky after winning the 2020 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)

It sucks DJ went to the LIV Tour but I’m not going to hold that against him when it comes to betting on these majors. It’s not his fault the Saudis made him an offer he couldn’t refuse. 

Course history is one of the most important things to factor into picking the Masters winner. Johnson is the 2020 Masters champion, finished 2nd the year before to Tiger Woods, 12th last year, T4 in 2016, and T6 in 2015.

It’s safe to say DJ is familiar with Augusta. 

2nd Masters Thoroughbred: Dustin Johnson

Sungjae Im

Majors are supposed to test golfers in every aspect of the game. Sungjae gains strokes throughout his career in the five most important stats in golf: Off-the-Tee, Approach, Tee-to-Green, Around-the-Green (ARG), and Putting.

If you want to win the Masters, golfers need to score on the Par 5s. Over the last 50 rounds, Sungjae is 3rd in this field in Par 5 scoring. There are several long and difficult Par 4s at Augusta.

Sungjae plays his shot on the 11th hole of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club.

Sungjae plays his shot on the 11th hole of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. (David Cannon/Getty Images)

Well, Sungjae is 10th in the field for Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 450-500 yards. Im is also top-20 in the Masters field for SG: BS, Proximity: 200+ yards, and Scrambling.

Last year, Sungjae was the 1st round leader at the Masters by scoring 4-under on the Par 5s en route to a T8 finish. Im finished T2 in the 2020 Masters and shot under par in all four rounds.

Im was playing similarly in 2022 as he is entering these Masters. Sungjae finished T6 at THE PLAYERS 2023, T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and T4 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Sungjae has finished in T18 or better in 12 of his last 22 full-field PGA Tour events since the 2022 Masters. Im is solid throughout the bag and scores well enough on the Par 5s to sneak in the backdoor with a T20.

3rd Masters Thoroughbred: Sungjae Im

Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood is most famous for never winning on the PGA Tour despite several top-10 finishes in the majors. He has placed T19 or better in three of his six career Masters starts with a T14 in 2022.

Augusta is known for its tricky firm and fast greens. Over the last 50 rounds, Fleetwood ranks 6th in this field for SG: ARG and 15th in Scrambling. I.e. Fleetwood is a short-game (SG) specialist.

Fleetwood lines up a putt during the 2nd round of The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club.

Fleetwood lines up a putt during the 2nd round of The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

The Englishman is 11th in SG: SG and 3rd in SG: ARG on firm and fast greens. Fleetwood is 11th in Birdies-or-Better Gained over the last 50 rounds on firm and fast greens. Lastly, Fleetwood scores on Par 5s.

Over the last 50 rounds, Fleetwood ranks 6th in this field for Par 5 EFF: 550-600. Three holes at Augusta are within that yardage: Pink Dogwood (Hole 2), Yellow Jasmine (Hole 8), and Firethorn (Hole 15).

4th Masters Thoroughbred: Tommy Fleetwood

Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for all full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.