Marlins Top Nationals in Miami

Nationals vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

Another sweep yesterday as we picked up more than three units on the day because of a plus money play on the Cardinals. We did get a bit lucky in the game, but we still won. I almost recommended playing the Orioles and that would've been a monster day, but that's okay. I'll "settle" for the 3-0 sweep and the 11-4 record over the last 15 games that we carry into the weekend.

The Nationals came into the season with very little hope, and are ending it without their star player whom they traded away in the middle of the year. I would like to assume they are using this year to evaluate players, but this probably isn't the case. For example, they are continuing to throw Josiah Gray every fifth day. He's not a great pitcher, but I will give him credit that he is a little better on the road. In road starts, he has allowed 33 earned runs in 75 innings which resulted in a 3.96 ERA. September has been absolutely brutal on him. He's only gone 13.1 innings and he's already allowed 14 earned runs. It wasn't just one bad start, either. It was three bad ones where he has allowed at least four in all three of the games. He hasn't been good against the Marlins overall, going 27.1 innings and allowing 17 earned runs. However, at Marlins Park he has been more successful. In those two starts, he has gone 11 innings and allowed just three earned runs. So maybe there is a bit of hope here.

Braxton Garrett is pitching for the Marlins, and like Gray he has a pretty drastic split. At home, Garrett is much better, pitching to the tune of a 2.67 ERA. He has only been pitching since June of this year so he doesn't have quite as much data as some of these other pitchers, but you can still get a sense of opportunity areas. You could argue that his best start of the season was against the Nationals, and that was on the road where he really struggles. He went 7.1 innings and allowed just one earned run and four hits. In his most recent start against Texas, he was okay in a return to the rotation. He went 4.2 innings and allowed just two earned runs.

I am going to take the Marlins in this game. At just -130, I think we are getting a pretty fair price in the game. There isn't a line on the first five innings right now, so I'll stick with the full game. It is just on the edge of when I will look for other options, but I do like the play.

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