4 Guaranteed Winners for Friday's NCAA Tournament 1st-Round Games

Unfortunately, I cannot update my 2024 March Madness betting record because I'm breaking down Friday's first-round games while sweating my bets for Thursday. For what it's worth, I cashed my first bet Thursday when Michigan State blasted Mississippi State in the opening game of the NCAA Tournament's Round of 64. 

LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast: 2024 NCAA Tournament Preview Ft. Trey Wallace & Dan Z

However, as you might be able to tell by reading the headline, I'm confident in my analysis of the Big Dance. For now. Until my bracket is busted and I'm eliminated from my survivor pool. With that in mind, here are four bets to fade or follow for Friday's NCAA Tournament slate. 

West Region: UNDER 138.5 in 14-seed Colgate vs. 3-seed Baylor, 12:40 p.m. ET on truTV 

Since I parachute into college basketball betting once March Madness rolls around, I get a lot of content from people who bet on college hoops year-long. One of the most profitable systems I've heard college basketball experts discuss is "Unders for early NCAA tourney games." 

Colgate-Baylor is in the central time zone at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. So, this game is tipping off at 11:40 a.m. ET local time and it's rare for teams to play that early. Logically, this system makes sense. However, I like the Under in Colgate-Baylor more when I dig into their statistical profiles. 

The Raiders play at the 226th-fastest pace in the country (out of 363 D-1 teams) and the Bears are 273rd in pace, per Ken Pom. Also, Colgate will struggle to get easy buckets. The Raiders are 298th in offensive rebounding rate and 238th in defensive turnover rate (TOV%). Both are good defensive rebounding teams. 

Baylor Bears head coach Scott Drew gives instructions to C Yves Missi against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena. (Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Colgate gets to the charity stripe at the 315th-highest rate in the country and Baylor's defensive FT/FGA rate is 2.0% lower than the national average. The Bears are a great 3-point and free-throw shooting team. But, the Raiders are 11th in defensive 3-point percentage and 13th in defensive FT/FGA rate, per Ken Pom. 

They say styles make fights and Colgate-Baylor looks like it could be a rock-fight. Finally, the Raiders slow it down when they are over-matched. Colgate is 1-5 Over/Under (O/U) as an underdog with a -12.3 O/U margin. 

Bet 1.05u on UNDER 138.5 in Colgate-Baylor (-105) at FanDuel. The Under is bet-able down to 136. 

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South Region: 10-seed Colorado (+2) vs. 7-seed Florida, 4:30 p.m. ET on TBS 

The Buffaloes started their NCAA Tournament early by beating Boise State 60-53 Wednesday in a First Four game. The Gators got throttled 86-67 by Auburn in the 2024 SEC Championship St. Patty's Day. But, Florida's bigger loss came when starting C Micah Handlogten broke his leg. 

Handlogten's loss is too big for the Gators to overcome. Florida and Colorado are among the tallest teams in the country. The Gators are seventh in offensive rebounding rate and the Buffaloes are 29th defensively, per Ken Pom. But, Handlogten ranks seventh nationally in offensive rebounding rate. So, his absence is going to hurt Florida on the glass. 

Colorado Buffaloes PPG KJ Simpson blows past Washington State Cougars PG Myles Rice at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Plus, Ken Pom and Erik Haslam are saying the "wrong team is favored" here. Pom ranks Colorado 24th in net efficiency and Florida 28th. Haslam projects the Buffaloes beat the Gators 80-77. Florida is one of the most popular schools in the country and I'm guessing the sportsbooks will be rooting for Colorado Friday. 

Lastly, the Buffaloes are the more talented team. NBA mock draft experts project Colorado wing Cody Williams will be a top-six pick in 2024. Buffaloes PG K.J. Simpson has the highest offensive rating among starters for both teams and the second-best Player Efficiency Rating in the Pac-12. 

Bet 1.1u on Colorado +2 (-110) at FanDuel. I'd play the Buffaloes through zero and up to -1.5. 

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South Region: 9-seed Texas A&M vs. 8-seed Nebraska (-115), 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT

The college basketball nerds agree that Nebraska's moneyline has value at -115. Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam project the Cornhuskers beat the Aggies by 2-3 points. Furthermore, the Aggies couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat. 

Texas A&M is 340th in true shooting, which combines 2- and 3-point and free-throw shooting rates. Two other "Texas A&M" schools (the Commerce and Corpus Christi campuses) have higher true shooting percentages than the Aggies. Adding to that, Texas A&M has a subpar 3-point defense and threes are Nebraska's bread and butter. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers SF Brice Williams attacks the rack on Illinois Fighting Illini SF Marcus Domask at Target Center in Minneapolis. (Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports)

Per Ken Pom, the Aggies are 182nd in defensive 3-point percentage and 351st in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) allowed. Most of the Cornhuskers' points are from threes and Texas A&M gives up a bunch of threes. Watch out for Nebraska senior SG Keisei Tominaga and junior small forward Brice Williams, both of whom are sharpshooters from outside. 

Bet 1.15u on Nebraska's moneyline (-115) at FanDuel. I'd bet the Cornhuskers up to -2

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West Region: 13-seed Charleston (+9.5) vs. 4-seed Alabama, 7:35 p.m. ET on truTV

Because Alabama's defense cannot stop a nosebleed, I've been eyeing this up as an "upset special" since Selection Sunday. Per Ken Pom, the Crimson Tide are 116th nationally in defensive efficiency. They are 278th in defensive TOV%, 225th in defensive rebounding, and 320th in defensive FT/FGA rate. I.e. ‘Bama commits stupid fouls and doesn’t grab boards or force turnovers. 

The College of Charleston Cougars during the trophy presentation after beating Stony Brook in the Coastal Conference tourney title game at Entertainment and Sports Arena. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)

Charleston is 58th in offensive efficiency, 30th in offensive TOV%, and 46th in offensive rebounding. The Cougars are 16th in 3PAr. I love the idea of backing an underdog that chucks threes and is facing a bad defense. Since the season is on the line, I can expect Charleston to go down swinging, which makes the backdoor cover wide open. 

Bet 1.05u on Charleston +9.5 (-105) at FanDuel. Give me the Cougars down to +8.5.

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