March Madness: Three 'Locks' For Round Of 32 Saturday In NCAA Tournament 2025

Frankly, the first two days of the 2025 NCAA Tournament were underwhelming. Thursday was a dud with only one thrilling finish. The Big Dance picked up a little Friday, but still, there hasn't been a lot of "madness" so far this March. I'm sure it'll turn around. After all, the NCAA tourney has the best entertainment track record in sports. 

Either way, most Americans have a little money on the line, whether it be survivor or bracket pools, which is enough to keep us watching. For those who want more gambling action in March Madness, here are a few bets for Saturday in the Round of 32 to fade or follow. 

2025 NCAA Tournament Betting Card: March 22

These bets are the best available odds at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing. 

• Midwest Region: 12-seed McNeese State Cowboys +6.5 (-115) vs. 4-seed Purdue Boilermakers via FanDuel, risking 1.5 units (u).
• West Region: 10-seed Arkansas Razorbacks Team Total UNDER 68.5 (-105) vs. 2-seed St. John's Red Storm via DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
• South Region: 9-seed Creighton Bluejays +9.5 (-115) vs. 1-seed Auburn Tigers via BetMGM, risking 1.15u.

McNeese (+5.5) vs. Purdue, 12:10 p.m. ET

Initially, I had the Cowboys covering as +7.5 underdogs in their 69-67 win over 5-seed Clemson in the first round Thursday. But, after reading that McNeese head coach Will Wade accepted NC State's open head coaching position, I passed on publicly betting the Cowboys because I wasn't sure how Wade's team would respond. 

I suspected they would rally around Wade, who brought it to a second straight NCAA tourney appearance in both years as McNeese's head coach. Furthermore, college kids understand coaches bolting for better jobs more so nowadays, since they can go to different schools more easily in this "transfer portal" era. 

As I suspected, the Cowboys played their a** off Thursday and beat the Tigers much worse than the final score indicates. In fact, McNeese was up 31-13 at halftime and built a game-high 24-point lead at one point. Things got sort of interesting at the end but Clemson didn't have a real chance of winning that game. 

Purdue handled business as -7.5 favorites Thursday, beating 13-seed High Point 75-63. Originally, I was going to bet High Point in that game. However, I kept hearing people say High Point was a "best bet", which scared me off. Good thing, right?

Well, I'm locking in a bet on the Cowboys Saturday because they stylistically matchup well against the Boilermakers. McNeese attacks the paint and Purdue has one of the worst interior defenses in the country. The Boilermakers are 348th out of 364 DI schools in defensive 2-point shooting rate, per Ken Pom. 

Lastly, the Cowboys have the fifth-best volume of "close 2-point" shots of the remaining NCAA Tournament teams, according to Bart Torvik. Purdue has the second-lowest rate of "close 2-point" shots and the third-highest frequency of "farther 2-point" field goals, the worst shot selection in basketball. 

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Arkansas' Team Total UNDER 68.5 vs. St. John's, 2:40 p.m. ET

Hand up: I'm biased. I graduated from St. John's, I bet my school several times to win the national championship, and I'd go to war for The Godfather, Rick Pitino. Since I took my Johnnies to make the Final Four, of course, I have them beating the Razorbacks in the Round of 32. 

That said, the Red Storm's offense hits rough patches because of their poor shooting, but Ken Pom ranks them first in defensive efficiency. So, I'm not crazy about betting St. John's -6.5 over Arkansas, even though I'll bet the Johnnies in the second half because they break their opponent by the 30-minute mark of every game and "turn off their water". 

The St. John's Red Storm stuffing the Omaha Mavericks at the rim in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament Thursday. (Photo credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)

Regardless, there is no effing way Arkansas scores 69 points Saturday. The Red Storm have allowed 69+ points in only 14 of their 35 games this season. They held Butler (57 points), Marquette (63), and Creighton (66) below 69 points in the Big East Tournament and Omaha to 53 points in the first round Thursday. 

The Razorbacks have scored 69+ points in 23 of their 33 games this season, making their 68.5-point team total appealing. Yet, including Arkansas, there are five SEC programs in the top 20 for Ken Pom's defensive efficiency: Tennessee, Texas A&M, Florida, and Auburn. The Razorbacks scored fewer than 63 points in their only meeting with all four. 

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Creighton (+9.5) vs. Auburn, 7:10 p.m. ET

Maybe I'm a sucker, but this line is disrespectful. The Bluejays have been to the Sweet 16 in three of the last four NCAA Tournaments and the Elite Eight two years ago. Plus, they are under-seeded as the runner-up in the Big East tourney. The Tigers, on the other hand, haven't gotten past the second round since their Final Four appearance in 2019. 

More importantly, Creighton is one of the few teams with a guy who can defend Auburn's unanimous first-team All-American big Johni Broome. I'm referring to Bluejays' reigning four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, C Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is 7-foot and a legit offensive big. I.e. Kalkbrenner will make Broome work on both ends of the floor. 

Finally, Creighton has a better shot profile. According to Bart Torvik, the Bluejays have a better dunk rate taken vs. allowed differential, the same goes for "close 2-pointers" and 3-pointers, and they attempt fewer inefficient long-mid-range jumpers. I have the Tigers making the Final Four in my bracket, but they aren't beating Creighton by double digits Saturday. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.