2025 NCAA Tournament Mid-Size Bets To Make Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four
Cinderella stories are what we love most about March Madness. Despite our best efforts to pick early-round upsets, there is a Sweet 16, Elite Eight, or Final Four team every year that no one expected. Unfortunately, I, like most of the media, have a "chalky" Final Four in my 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket with three 1-seeds and a 2-seed.
Hence, I had to get a little creative with my Cinderella bets for the Big Dance. I'm not giving out any 100-to-1 Hail Mary longshots to make the Elite Eight or Final Four. Rather, I'm betting on four teams with a legitimate shot of upsetting favorites that can make us money without crushing our realistic brackets.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025 NCAA Tournament First-Round Best Bets and Final Four Picks ft. Dan Z & Scott Martin
The odds below are available at DraftKings, which allows you to parlay these teams together for a crazy payout. St. John's to make the Final Four, Marquette to make the Elite Eight, VCU to make the Sweet 16, and Xavier to make the Sweet 16 parlayed together is +156980. For a cup of coffee ($5), you can collect nearly $8,000 if this parlay hits.
St. John's to win the West Regional (+600)
Some would argue that St. John's got a bad draw since Florida is the 1-seed in the West Region and the Gators are the second-betting favorite to win the national title. The 3-seed Texas Tech is seventh in Ken Pom's rankings and the 4-seed Maryland is 12th.
But, I view it as those teams got a bad draw because they are in the Red Storm's path. As we all know, "defense wins championships", and the Johnnies have the best defensive efficiency in the country, per Ken Pom. All five Red Storm starters are long and athletic. They all communicate and recover on defense.
St. John's combo guard Kadary Richmond is a semifinalist for the 2025 Naismith Men’s Defensive Player of the Year and the best defensive guard, if not player, in the nation. Richmond is a 6-foot-6 graduate transfer from Seton Hall, and he was the top-ranked player in the transfer portal this offseason.
RELATED: Rick Pitino's Interview Convinced Me To Bet St. John's Winning 2025 National Championship
He is essentially a grown man and some of these college kids have no chance to score on him. Richmond would be a top-25 athlete in the NBA this season. Guard-play is vital in tournament basketball and there isn't a guard in the country "getting buckets" on Kadary. He is putting all of them in jail, so to speak.
All the doubters say the same thing: "St. John's can't shoot." Which is true to an extent. The Johnnies are 338th in 3-point percentage and 295th in free-throw percentage. Yet, they get good looks because Richmond and 2025 Big East Player of the Year, R.J. Luis, consistently beat their defenders off the dribble. So, if they have to, the Red Storm can hit 3-pointers.
Regardless, unlike most basketball teams nowadays, they don't rely on 3-pointers: St. John's is 346th in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr). Instead, the Johnnies get out in transition off of rebounds and steals and crash the offensive glass. They are 19th in offensive tempo, ninth in offensive rebounding rate, and 13th in defensive turnover rate (TOV%).
Their hustle, plus Rick Pitino's trademark full-court press, wears teams down, and the Red Storm's opponents eventually break in the second half. Ultimately, St. John's has the most accomplished head coach in college hoops and the most athletic team in the country. If they have a couple of hot-shooting nights, the Johnnies will win the national title.
Marquette to reach the Elite Eight in the South Regional (+500)
One of my most passionate takes is "Big East basketball is criminally underrated." I grew up as a Syracuse fan in upstate New York and graduated from St. John's. Big East basketball is kind of in my blood. With that in mind, my Big East bias will be on full display in this article. You already got a taste of that when I glazed my alma mater.
Marquette as a 7-seed is ridiculous and fits my theory that the Big East is underrated. The Golden Eagles have four impressive wins over non-conference opponents who made the NCAA tourney, such as Maryland (4-seed out West), Purdue (4-seed in the Midwest), Georgia, (9-seed out East), and Wisconsin (3-seed out East). Three of those victories were by 11+ points.
Furthermore, the Golden Eagles will win the "battle for possessions" in most games. They are eighth in offensive TOV% and 20th defensively. Marquette gets out in transition, which is one of my favorite things in basketball because it's easier to score before the defense can set up.
Lastly, Golden Eagles' second-team All-American PG Kam Jones is a problem and the type of player that will do damage in March. Killa Kam scored 32 points in their regular-season finale vs. St. John's, again, the best defense in the country, and 24 points against the Johnnies in the Big East tourney. Jones averaged 22.0 points on 53.2% shooting in three NCAA Tournament games last year.
VCU to reach the Sweet 16 in the East Regional (+340)
The 11-seed Rams face the 6-seed BYU in the first round. Whoever wins this game will play the winner of 14-seed Montana and 3-seed Wisconsin. I lean toward Montana covering as +17.5 underdogs, but Wisconsin will advance. That said, I like how VCU matches up with BYU and Wisconsin, who rely on 3-pointers.
The Rams lead the country in defensive effective field goal rate, which factors in 2- and 3-point shooting, and rank 30th in defensive TOV%. They chase opponents off the 3-point line — 66th in defensive 3PAr — and rank 22nd in defensive 3-point percentage.
VCU is 27th in 3PAr, so it can keep up in a 3-point shootout with BYU and Wisconsin. Plus, the Rams are 12th in offensive rebounding rate and score second-chance points. Combined, these things give VCU a puncher's chance against BYU and Wisconsin.
Xavier to reach the Sweet 16 in the Midwest Regional (+750)
The Musketeers' path to the Sweet 16 is tougher because they face Texas Wednesday in the First Four for the 11-seed with the winner playing 6-seed Illinois in the Round of 64, then meets the winner of 14-seed Troy and 3-seed Kentucky.
Nonetheless, I'm taking a shot with Xavier at this price because its resume is good enough that it shouldn't have to play in the First Four, and head coach Sean Miller is underrated like the Big East itself. Miller has made the Sweet 16 eight times in 20 years as a head coach, which includes two stints with the Musketeers and a 12-year stop at Arizona.
Despite being in the 'First Four', the Xavier Musketeers are one of my picks to make the 'Elite Eight' in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
After making the tourney in Miller's first season back, Xavier failed to make the Big Dance last season. But, Musketeers big Zach Freemantle missed last season with an injury, and they picked up Indiana State transfer guard Ryan Conwell in the portal this offseason, who's been a stud. Freemantle averages a team-high 17.3 points per game (PPG) and Conwell scores 16.8 PPG on 41.8% shooting from behind the arc.
Finally, Xavier can shoot the lights out: Ranked sixth nationally in 3-point percentage and eighth in free-throw percentage. The Musketeers also have traits that I like in a squad. They move the ball well (fourth in assists per field goal made), have experience (second in D1 experience), and get out in transition (46th in offensive tempo).
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.