March Madness 2023: First Four Bets For Both 11-Seed Games
The 2023 NCAA Tournament officially begins Tuesday with the First Four games at the University of Dayton Arena in Ohio. Before you poo poo these games, remember two Final Four teams have come from the First Four since 2011.
Two of the games will decide who are the 16-seeds in the South and East Regions. And Imma just shoot you guys straight upfront: I don't care about the 16-seed games. Whichever teams win will get smoked in the Round of 64.
Instead, I'll focus on the pair of 11-seed games. Pittsburgh and Mississippi State face off Tuesday to see who will play 6-seed Iowa State in the Midwest Region. Then Nevada meets Arizona State for a chance to play 6-seed TCU out West.
First Four: 11-seed Pittsburgh Panthers (22-11) vs. 11-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12), Tuesday at 9:10 p.m. ET
If this were a college football matchup, you'd run to the window to bet an SEC laying just -2.5 over an ACC team. That same logic applies to Pittsburgh-Mississippi State Tuesday.
The ACC had two teams in the Final Four last year but has regressed year over year. Per KenPom.com, the ACC is the 7th-toughest conference by net efficiency and the SEC is 3rd.
In fact, Pittsburgh's two victories over North Carolina are far more impressive now that we know the Tar Heels aren't good. UNC was the preseason No. 1 overall team and didn't even make the Big Dance.
More importantly, the Bulldogs have played much better than the Panthers entering the First Four. Per BartTorvik.com, Pittsburgh is 98th in net efficiency over the past month and Mississippi State is 61st.
Mississippi State Bulldogs PF Cameron Matthews dunks on the Florida Gators during the 2023 SEC Basketball Tournament at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Since Feb. 13, the Bulldogs are 5-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games with wins vs. Arkansas and Texas A&M. While the Panthers are 1-3 in Quad 1 and 2 games with their only win vs. an overrated UNC team.
Over that span, Pittsburgh is 244th nationally in defensive rebounding rate and Mississippi State is 22nd in offensive rebounding rate, according to BartTorvik.com.
According to VSIN, more than 60% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Pittsburgh at the time of writing yet the line is moving towards Mississippi State who opened at -1.5.
But, the sharps recognize how weak the ACC is and that Mississippi State is the more physical team that will win the battle for possessions.
BET: Mississippi State Bulldogs moneyline (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook
First Four: 11-seed Nevada Wolf Pack (22-10) vs. 11-seed Arizona State Sun Devils (22-12), Wednesday at 9:10 p.m. ET
I'm going to lean on the college basketball nerds and fade the public for this handicap. Arizona State is from the Pac-12, which is a Power 5 conference, and Nevada is a Mountain West team.
DraftKings is reporting that nearly 90% of the action is on the Sun Devils as of Tuesday morning. However, Ken Pom ranks Nevada 43rd in net efficiency and Arizona State is 68th.
Furthermore, Bart Torvik gives the Wolf Pack a 52.6% chance to beat the Sun Devils. Ed Feng ranks Nevada 48th in "Predicted Margin Of Victory Against Average Team" and Arizona State is 61st.
Nevada Wolf Pack guard Daniel Foster drives to the hoop vs. the San Diego State Aztecs at Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl in San Diego. (Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Wolf Pack have the biggest "strength-on-weakness" edge in this game. Nevada is 22nd nationally in offensive free-throw-attempt rate (FTr) and Arizona State is 236th in defensive FTr, per Ken Pom.
My biggest complaint about college basketball has always been the officiating. These referees poop their pants as much in the NCAA Tournament as the players and coaches.
Nevada is 6th nationally in free-throw percentage and could get a bunch of freebies if Arizona State's foul troubles continue in the First Four.