Lugo, Royals, Can Take Down Tigers

Royals vs. Tigers, 1:10 ET

I really like divisional matchups in baseball. We get more data on these series than any other matchups. It can be hard to predict the first few games, but if you get them correct, you're positioning yourself well to start the year. I don't know that there are a ton of games that I really like on today's card, but I did circle a division matchup that I have a lot of hope for. Let's get down to business here as we take on the game between the Royals and the Tigers. 

The Royals are struggling to start the season. Sure, they have Bobby Witt Jr. playing good baseball, and even a few other guys hitting fairly well, but overall, the offense is struggling and they enter this game with a losing record. Specifically, on the road, they have been brutal. At the time of this writing, the Royals have allowed four runs or more in each of their past four games and scored a total of seven runs in those same four games. As you might expect, those were all road games for Kansas City. If you want to find a bright spot for the team, it is their pitching. So far, 3.49 with a 1.28 WHIP. Today they send out Seth Lugo to the hill in hopes he can limit any Tigers damage so the offense can get going. Lugo was my go-to guy last season, and he seems like he is pitching pretty well to start this one. Lugo is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP for the year. He has to try and rebound from his last start where he allowed four solo shots to the Yankees. He has been rather good against the Tigers, though, holding them to a .213 average in 75 at-bats. He also was outstanding last year at Comerica Park.

CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 05: Casey Mize #12 of the Detroit Tigers pitches in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 05, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

The Tigers are one of those teams that kind of came out of nowhere last season, but don't get the benefit of surprise this year. They snuck into the playoffs behind some great pitching and that's probably going to need to be their path in once again this year if they can make it. Detroit just doesn't have a ton of hitting - average or power. With that said, the team is playing pretty well offensively to this point in the season, averaging roughly one homer per game, and also about 4.5 runs per game. The pitching is still carrying their weight with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Casey Mize takes the hill. Mize was a hyped pitcher a few years ago and has kind of failed to live up to expectations to this point. Mize is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 17.1 innings this season. This is the pitcher that people thought they were drafting. Mize's last start was his worst, going 5.2 innings and allowing seven hits, four earned runs, and two homers. Against the Royals, Mize has really struggled, giving up a .408 batting average in 69 at-bats.

I think this is a game the Royals steal. I like Lugo and he has pitched rather well at Comerica in the past. Against a team he is familiar with, he should be able to replicate past performances. For Mize, I really liked his first two outings, but that doesn't mean he will pitch like that all season. I'm going to take the Royals to win this game through five innings as I am not really comfortable with the rest of the game and relying on the Royals offense too much - even if they have hit Mize well in the past. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024