Lucky Dozen: The Best Player Props To Bet For Every NFL Week 3 Sunday Afternoon Game

After years of wasting money on fantasy football leagues, I've realized a better way to make money on individual NFL players is with props. With the expansion of legalized sports betting in the U.S., player props are more of a thing.

Before, you'd mostly only see NFL player props for the Super Bowl. Now, every game has a plethora of betting options. I've uncovered props for all 12 Sunday afternoon games in the 1-4 p.m. ET slate. Most of these plays are only "Pizza Bets" and I'm not putting life-changing money on the line.

NFL Week 3 Player Props

Chargers WR Keenan Allen UNDER 75.5 receiving yards (-115) vs. Vikings

Most sportsbooks have Allen's receiving yards prop a couple of yards higher. Get used to hearing this because it's a big part of my player prop handicapping process. To shorten this angle, let's nickname it "off-market" pricing.

That said, Pinnacle Sportsbook, which is the sharpest shop in town and known for booking the largest bets. It set Allen's receiving yards Over/Under at 73.5 as did DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars.

Chargers WR Keenan Allen is forced out of bounds by Miami Dolphins CB Keion Crossen at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades Allen's WR-CB matchup vs. the Vikings in Week 3 "below average". Minnesota's defense but should improve as the season progresses under 1st-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

Bills RB James Cook UNDER 55.5 rushing yards (-115) vs. Washington

PointsBet is "off-market" on Cook's rushing yards prop also. Now, I don't just blindly bet these spots. When I see one, I'll try to reverse engineer the odds to see if I can make sense of it.

In this case, Washington's defense allows the fewest yards before contact through the 1st two weeks of the season, according to PFF. Last season, the Commanders were 4th in rushing defense success rate and 11th in rushing yards allowed.

Saints WR Michael Thomas OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-125) vs. Packers

When Thomas plays, he's one of the best WRs in the NFL. His problem isn't lack of production, it's health. Thomas has gone Over this number in 59 of his 75 career games including both this season.

Also, New Orleans' skilled WR corp will allow Thomas to get one-on-one coverage. Per PFF, Saints WR Rashid Shaheed is 8th out of a 103 wideouts graded this season and Chris Olave is 6th.

Lastly, Thomas' receiving yards prop is 53.5 at all the other sportsbooks. Even if this number moves, I'd be willing to bet Over for Thomas' receiving yards up to 54.5.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-115) vs. Lions

Unlike dumba** Detroit, Atlanta actually uses its 2023 1st-round running back. (Disregard that insult if you're a Lions fan. I'm just mad I took Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs in the 2nd round of my fantasy draft and the Lions are "easing Gibbs into the offense").

Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson is a baller. According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Robinson is 2nd in rushing yards over expectation. In Week 2, Robinson crapped all over the Green Bay Packers. He ran for 124 yards on 19 carries.

Atlanta likes to "establish the run". The Falcons have the highest rushing rate in the NFL through two weeks. Per PFF, Atlanta's offensive line has the biggest run-blocking edge over Detroit's defensive line in Week 2.

And you know what I'm going to say next: Robinson's 65.5 rushing yards prop at PointsBet is "off-market". The other sportsbooks have Robinson's rushing yards prop set at 69.5. Between Robinson's probable workload and the Lions' bad rush defense, there is value on Robinson to gain 100+ rushing yards at PointsBet for +310.

Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo UNDER 30.5 receiving yards (-115) vs. Browns

Hint: Shop around for better odds on this prop. But, I'm willing to bet it at 30.5 because the Browns have allowed just 19 receiving yards to opposing tight ends through two games.

Cleveland S Grant Delpit is projected to cover Okonkwo. Delpit has the 2nd-best pass coverage grade among 72 qualifying safeties, per PFF. Okonkwo has only 4 catches for 35 yards on 6 targets in the 1st two games.

Texans WR Robert Woods OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-125) vs. Jaguars

While playing for Tennessee last season, Woods went Over this number in both games vs. Jacksonville. One of those games Woods was catching balls thrown by former Titans backup QB Josh Dobbs.

In Houston, Woods has the 2023 No. 2 overall pick, QB C.J. Stroud throwing to him. Woods had 57 receiving yards vs. the Ravens in Week 1 and 74 against the Colts last week. He's Stroud's 2nd-most targeted WR (19) so far this year.

Texans WR Robert Woods catches the ball with Indianapolis Colts LB E.J. Speed at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Woods' receiving yards prop is "off-market" as well by two yards. He could go Over this number in garbage time. The Jaguars are heavy favorites (-8.5) vs. the Texans. Stroud is averaging 313.0 passing yards per game.

Houston needs Stroud to air it out because after falling behind in games. The market is saying the Jaguars are two scores worse than Texans. Meaning, Stroud will likely need to play catch up again Sunday.

Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne UNDER 35.5 receiving yards (-120) vs. Jets

Bourne moved back to the bench after a solid Week 1 with 6 catches for 64 yards on 11 targets. Patriots WR DeVante Parker missed the 1st game of the season and returned to the lineup last week.

In Week 2, Bourne caught just 4 passes for 29 yards. New England QB Mac Jones attempted 54 passes in Week 1 vs. the Eagles and 42 last week against the Dolphins.

New England Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne attempts a diving catch vs. the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

But, the Patriots were behind at least two scores in most of those games. This game vs. the Jets should be lower scoring. There is no way Bill Belichick wants Jones dropping back to pass that much.

Especially against this fierce Jets defense. NYJ has the best secondary in the NFL so there is no one for Jones and Bourne to pick. In two games vs. the Jets last year, Bourne caught only 1 pass for 8 yards on 2 targets across 78 snaps.

(And, of course, PointsBet's 35.5 receiving yards prop for Bourne is five yards higher than the other sportsbooks).

Broncos RB Javonte Williams UNDER 50.5 rushing yards (-110) vs. Dolphins

Miami's run defense tightened up against the Patriots this past weekend after getting gashed by the Chargers in Week 1. LAC ran for 233 yards then New England gained 88 yards on the ground.

Broncos RB Javonte Williams is tackled by the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field At Mile High in Denver, Colorado. (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Williams has only 96 yards in his 1st two games and averages 3.8 yards per rush vs. the Raiders and Commanders. Denver is 24th in rushing rate through two weeks. Broncos 1st-year head coach Sean Payton ran a dink-and-dunk style of offense while coaching the Saints.

Also, per PFF, Denver's offensive line has one of the worst run-blocking mismatches vs. the Dolphins in Week 2. Last year, Miami was 6th in yards per rush allowed and has one of the best front sevens in the NFL.

Ravens WR Zay Flowers OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-120) vs. Colts

Baltimore's 2023 1st-round pick looks like the real deal. Flowers has been the most productive WR for the Ravens through the 1st two games. He leads Baltimore in targets (15), catches (13), and receiving yards (140).

Flower should get more targets in Week 3 because Ravens 1st-year WR Odell Beckham Jr. is ruled out with an ankle injury. He lines up in both the slot and out-wide for Baltimore and Indianapolis's secondary is one of the worst in the NFL.

Panthers QB Andy Dalton OVER 215.5 passing yards (-110) vs. Seahawks

The Red Rifle is starting for his 5th team in the last five years when he makes his season-debut for an injured Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young Sunday. Although Seattle is a tough place to play, this is a soft landing spot for Dalton's replacement duty.

Seattle has cluster injuries to its secondary. Three Seahawks safeties are "questionable" to play in Week 3 (Julian Love, Jamal Adams, and Quandry Diggs). Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen is "doubtful" and CB Coby Bryant has been ruled out.

The Seahawks gave up 316 passing yards to Lions QB Jared Goff last week and 334 to Rams QB Matthew Stafford in Week 1. Dalton has one of the lowest passing props in Week 3. But, Seattle's defense is 31st in net yards allowed per pass.

Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson anytime TD (+300) vs. Cardinals

Since this is a fat payout and unlikelier to cash, definitely bet this prop lighter than the rest if you take it. The Cowboys decided to move on from former TE Dalton Schultz because they liked what they had in Ferguson.

He caught a TD in Dallas's Week 2 win over the Jets. Also, according to PFF, Ferguson has the 5th-best tight end matchup in NFL Week 3. Last season, Arizona gave up the most TDs to opposing tight ends (12).

Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling UNDER 35.5 receiving yards (-115) vs. Bears

Since joining Kansas City in 2022, Valdes-Scantling has gone Over this number in just 10 of his 22 games played, including the playoffs. Valdes-Scantling is lining up against Chicago's best defensive back Sunday, CB Jaylon Johnson.

In the 1st two games of the season, Valdes-Scantling is tied with Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon for the 8th-most targets on the team (5). Valdes-Scantling has become more of an afterthought in KC's offense and I'm betting that continues in Week 3.