Los Angeles Rams Will Beat Philadelphia Eagles In Game Between Last 2 NFC Champs
I worded the title for this Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2) NFL Week 5 handicap in a specific way. It's a reminder the Rams won Super Bowl 2021. Last season, they got decimated by injuries and it was a throwaway year.
However, I'd argue this Rams teams is closer to the Super Bowl version from 2021 than last year's 5-12 team. LAR has the same QB (Matt Stafford), coach (Sean McVay), and all-time pass rusher (Aaron Donald) as the Super Bowl team.
Plus, the calvary is coming. The Rams designated WR, and 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Cooper Kupp to return from injured reserve this week. The 2021 Super Bowl MVP is practicing but it's unknown if he'll make his season debut in Week 5.
I have no insight on this however my guess is Kupp plays against the Eagles. He was a top-five pick in most PPR or Half-PPR fantasy football leagues. Meaning, most football fans thought he would be healthy entering the season. Perhaps he doesn't need the full 3-game ramp up period to get ready.
Eagles at Rams NFL Week 5 odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams for NFL Week 5.
Los Angeles rookie WR Puka Nacua leads the league in catches (39), is 2nd in receiving yards (501), and has the 2nd-best odds to win offensive rookie of the year. When Kupp is 100%, he and Puka may be a top five to 10 WR tandem in the league.
But, aside from the division rival San Francisco 49ers, this is LA's biggest regular-season game. It's a "measuring stick" game for the Rams. They can compare themselves to the reigning NFC champions. My guess Kupp suits up Sunday and gives Stafford another weapon.
That said, even if Kupp doesn't come back I still think there is value on the Rams +4.5 (-110) vs. the Eagles in NFL Week 5. These teams are neck-and-neck in net extended points per play, yards per play, success rate, and pressure rate.
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If you just looked at their stats you wouldn't know the Eagles have a better record. Pro-Football-Reference.com ranks Los Angeles 6th in SRS, and Philadelphia is 15th. SRS blends strength of schedule with point-per-game differential.
The Eagles have been flying too close to the sun with these tight games. Three of Philly's four wins have been by six points or less. Both New England Patriots in Week 1 and Washington Commanders last week had more 1st downs than the Eagles.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford throws the ball during the game against the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
With that in mind, Philadelphia's defense has taken a step back from last year's team. The Eagles lost several defensive starters this offseason and former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon took the Arizona Cardinals head coaching gig.
Philly allowed Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, Patriots QB Mac Jones and Commanders QB Sam Howell go up and down the field. Cousins is pretty good. But, if Jones and Howell can do that to Philadelphia's defense, Stafford could have a big game.
My prediction: Rams 24, Eagles 21