No Way The Dodgers Sweep The Yankees on Sunday With Luis Gil Starting

The New York Yankees (45-21) try to save face in their three-game series finale with the Los Angeles Dodgers (41-25) at Yankee Stadium on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. Los Angeles goes for the sweep after beating New York 2-1 in extra innings Friday and 11-3 Saturday. The Dodgers start power-throwing RHP Tyler Glasnow (6-4, 2.93 ERA) and the Yankees counter with rookie sensation, RHP Luis Gil (8-1, 1.82 ERA). 

Despite losing three of his last four starts, Glasnow still has the fourth-best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the 2024 NL Cy Young (+650). Glasnow's 1-0 loss Tuesday to the Pittsburgh Pirates was more bad luck than bad pitching. He only allowed one earned run on three hits (one home run) and two walks with nine strikeouts over 6.0 innings. 

Gil has the best odds to win the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year (-120) at DraftKings. He won his seventh consecutive start, 5-1, Tuesday at home vs. the Minnesota Twins. Gil pitched six scoreless innings of one-hit ball with three walks and six strikeouts against Minnesota. The 26-year-old is eighth in FanGraphs' starting-pitcher power rankings. 

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees Odds (Caesars) 

• Moneyline: Los Angeles (-135) | NEW YORK (+115) 
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | Yankees +1.5 (-155)
• Total — 7.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Per Statcast, Gil ranks in the 82% or higher among MLB starters in xERA, xBA, hard-hit rate, whiff rate, and K%. Plus, Gil has been lights out at Yankee Stadium. At home this season, Gil is 5-0 with a 1.05 ERA (2.57 road-ERA), 0.85 WHIP (1.00 road-WHIP), and 13.1 K/9 (9.0 K/9 on the road). 

Also, Gil pitches better at night than Glasnow. That might be completely random, but athletes, especially baseball players, are creators of habit. Glasnow is 3-4 in night games with a 3.60 ERA and Gil is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA. This is Glasnow's first start with four days' rest in 2024 and Gil is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA on four days' rest.  

New York Yankees RHP Luis Gil fires one in vs. the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Glasnow has been luckier than Gil. Glasnow's .236 BAbip is 50 points lower than the MLB average (.286) despite having a below-average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Gil has a .179 BAbip but his hard-hit rate is 11.1% lower than the MLB average. 

Finally, New York's lineup is the best vs. right-handed pitching. Per FanGraphs, the Yankees lead the MLB in wRC+, wOBA, and BB/K rate and rank second in hard-hit rate against righties. Granted, the Yankees will be without lefty slugger Juan Soto for a third straight game Sunday. But, the only team with a deeper lineup than the Yankees may be the Dodgers. 

BET 1 unit on the New York Yankees +115 moneyline at Caesars. The Yankees are playable down to even-money (+100). 

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