Best Bet, +1000 SGP For Chargers At Texans Saturday In NFL Wild Card Weekend
Disclaimer: You're taking a "bad number" if you're betting on the 5-seed Los Angeles Chargers to cover -3 or higher at the 4-seed AFC South champion Houston Texans in the 2025 NFL Wild Card round Saturday. The Texans closed as +3 underdogs vs. the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 16.
Now, Houston is getting +3 at home against an inferior team? Ipso facto, Los Angeles -3 here is a sucker bet. That said, I guess I'm a sucker because the Texans are a corpse right now and the Chargers have the better quarterback, coach, and defense. This Houston team reminds me of the Philadelphia Eagles last season.
LISTEN: The OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Wild Card Weekend 2025 Betting Roundtable ft. Dan Z & Scott Martin
Remember, the Eagles started 10-1 before losing five of their last six regular-season games and getting crushed 31-9 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round. But, everyone knew Philly was a fraudulent 10-1 and would get bounced out of the playoffs early. Similarly, the Texans have had ugly performances since starting 5-1 this year.
The Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers Saturday in the 2025 AFC wild-card round at NRG Stadium. (Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)
QB C.J. Stroud's sophomore slump is the main reason for Houston's shaky season. Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game last year (273.9) and ranked sixth in QB Rating (100.8). This season, he is averaging just 219.2 passing yards per game and his QB Rating has fallen to 87.0. This quarterback matchup would've been a toss-up at the beginning of the year.
However, Chargers QB Justin Herbert is clearly the better quarterback entering the playoffs. Herbert was a top-five NFL QB before former Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley tarnished his image. With that in mind, Herbert and Jim Harbaugh are a better QB-head coach combo than Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.
RELATED: Jim Harbaugh Used Black Eyed Peas To Change Chargers Culture
LAC is better in high-leverage situations (third down and in the red zone). Herbert has the lowest interception rate in the league. The Chargers are fifth in penalties per game and the Texans are 27th. LAC is 10th in missed tackles and Houston has the most missed tackles of any team in the playoffs.
Also, going on the road impacts the Chargers less than other teams. Part of that is coaching. The other part is LAC doesn't have a true home-field advantage. Their opponents almost always have more fans at SoFi Stadium than LAC. Plus, Herbert's numbers are better on the road and the Chargers allow 1.1 fewer yards per play in away games.
I'm okay with betting on the Chargers, the most bet team in the wild-card round, because the public has been killing it lately. FanDuel reportedly lost $370 million this season due to "bettor-friendly NFL results". In the Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest, I went 21-15 betting on favorites (10-2 with road favorites), compared to 21-29-2 with underdogs.
All 11 of LAC's wins this season have been by 4+ points and five of Houston's seven losses are by 5+ points. Most Chargers games have a low total (this one is 41.5 at FanDuel), but they still win by margin usually. The bottom line is square bets win too sometimes, and the Chargers vs. Chiefs in the AFC divisional round feels right.
Prediction: Los Angeles 23, Houston 16
- I'd wait until closer to kickoff before betting on the Chargers. I could see a lot of professional game-day money coming in on the Texans and LAC's spread falling to a cheap -2.5 or even -2.
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‘Same Game Parlay’ (+1000)
- Chargers -2.5
- UNDER 42.5
- Chargers WR Quentin Johnston OVER 43.5 receiving yards
- Texans WR John Metchie III UNDER 23.5 receiving yards
These Same Game Parlays (SGPs) are always "pizza bets". Meaning, don't wager life-changing money on them. For example, if you're betting $100 per game, just put $10 on an SGP. The first leg is self-explanatory. I included the UNDER 42.5 because both teams have better defensive efficiency, Houston is 1-7 Over/Under (O/U) at home and LAC is 3-6 O/U on the road.
Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston hauling in a catch vs. the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. (Photo credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
I'm not betting the Over for Johnston's receiving yards prop because he's good. He isn't. Rather, Johnston's props have upside because of the attention fellow Chargers WR Ladd McConkey commands and Herbert is an animal. Lastly, Metchie's prop is "off-market" at DraftKings. Pinnacle Sportsbook, the sharpest oddsmaker in the world, lists him at 19.5 receiving yards.
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