Looks For Week 9 In The NFL Sunday Slate

Leans for Week 9

Usually I write four articles per week for Outkick on football. I am still meeting that number, but I'm doing it a bit different because this week, nothing stands out to me as a sure-fire let's take it (at least outside of the games I've already written about). I'll still have a play tomorrow, and I have one more today, but I thought I'd try something a bit different here and will share my leans for the games. Because I'm a man of honor, I'll play these, but won't do it at the normal unit size. Without further ado, here are three leans on games for Week 9 on Sunday.

Lions vs. Packers, 4:05 ET

There are a lot of reasons to love this game. We have two teams near the top of what has been the best division in football, the NFC North. We have two young, hungry teams, with a lot of hype that both made the playoffs last year. We also have a clear battle going on for not only the division, but playoff positioning and more between these two teams. The Packers are at home and while not every stadium is worthy of a home-field advantage tag, the Packers do have that. The Lions are without their best defensive player, and have been for two games. It is possible that the Packers won't have Jordan Love. There is just too much going on in this game for me to confidently say that the Packers will win it outright, but I feel like a divisional home dog is typically a good bet and think that backing the Packers +3.5 is the right way to go. I'd highly suggest confirming Love playing before taking this one though.

Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love looks to pass against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. (Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images)

Commanders vs. Giants, 1:00 ET

I just mentioned that it is usually a good idea to take the points with the home dog in a divisional battle. That is if the home dog is actually a good team. See the New York Giants are not a team that you can trust at home. However, you can trust them as an away team. For whatever reason, Daniel Jones just is terrible inside of his home locker room. He hasn't thrown a touchdown this season at home, and has four of his five interceptions here. His rating at home is 63.2 compared to 97.1 as a road starter. The Commanders are coming off of a very emotional win. This is typically a spot where you should fade a team. However, I put more credence into that when it is a playoff game. They have the better quarterback, they have a strong offense that the Giants haven't shown the same defensive success against as last year. Take the Commanders to win and cover this game, but I'd suggest, maybe buying a half point so you get it at -3 instead of -3.5.

Dolphins vs. Bills, 1:00 ET

It seems like all teams go through some ups and downs over the course of the year. The Bills look great most of the time, but there are certainly times where they look a little crappy. The problem, or difficulty of the NFL, is there is only week-to-week betting. In other more frequent sports, you can ride the trend of performance a bit easier. With the NFL, you need to have clear stances on all teams right away. I was high on the Dolphins and even picked them to beat the Bills early in the season. I was very wrong. The Bills were, and are, the better team. They crushed the spirit of the Dolphins and have made them look silly in a lot of games. I think they do it again here. The Bills don't always look like a juggernaut, and it is hard to predict when Josh Allen will have a bad game, but right now, he is playing well. Back the Bills -6. 

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