Look At Under In Afternoon AL Central Match

Royals vs. Twins, 1:10 ET

Sometimes you get the opportunity to feel like you're Tyler Durden. You're leading chaos at the books, and they are scared of the best that you (and hopefully 1,000's of readers) are placing. Other times you feel like Bob and are left as a blubbering mess. Yesterday, I was Bob. Kind of. I won one game that I played with ease, it wasn't even a sweat. The next game, not so much as Shota Imanaga, a guy that I've depended on quite a bit this season, tossed his first true stinker of the season. I was on the wrong end of that one. Normally, I'd not think it was a big deal, but I recommended three plays on that one game, and all three were losses. I'm back today for another round of Fight Club against the books and starting with a game between the Royals and the Twins. 

The Royals are a team that I've written about quite a bit this season as they have not only been surprisingly good, but they've helped me build my bankroll. I think most people, even some of the more die-hard Royals fans have to be mighty impressed with the performance to this point. They currently sit with a 35-22 record. While most of that success has come at home, they are still at least .500 on the road. In the four-game set that concludes today, the Royals trail their divisional foes 2-1. They are looking to split the series and bring themselves closer to even against the Twins for the season (currently they trail 4-2 against Minnesota head-to-head for the season). I chose not to write about Seth Lugo yesterday and how good he has been for the Royals, and it cost me. Today, I'm telling you that Brady Singer has been not quite as good, but still impressive. Singer is throwing to a 2.63 ERA, good for 16th in the league, and has a 1.12 ERA which places him at 35th. For the season, Singer has made 11 starts and has allowed one or fewer earned runs in eight of them, including last week against the Rays. He did face the Twins earlier in the year and allowed just three hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 hitters. That start could be a bit of an outlier as the Twins are 35-for-118 against Singer, good for a .297 average. That also could be some historical data that just won't hold up now that he is pitching better. 

May 29, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) celebrates with second baseman Adam Frazier (26) after hitting a solo home run against the Minnesota Twins in the fifth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

While the Royals are coming out of nowhere (and so are the Guardians by the way), the Twins were expected to be successful and likely win the division this season. As of right now, they sit in third place despite being five games above .500 for the year. They are not significantly better at home than on the road so they don't gain a big edge by being in Minnesota for today's game. The Twins record actually is a good reflection of where they are as a team. Most of their stats like runs, batting average, home runs, etc. are all around the upper middle of the pack for baseball. Their pitching is probably the likely cause of them being held back. For the season, the team has a 4.14 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. I'm fine with the WHIP, and even the ERA isn't terrible, but they are allowing opponents to hit almost .250 against them. They send out Chris Paddack to the hill for them. He has been better at home than on the road so does get a bit of a bump in terms of evaluation for today's contest. For the season, Paddack has a 6.85 road ERA, but in his home starts, he has a 2.73 ERA. He has only had one home start in his six attempts where he has allowed more than two earned runs for the game. Royals hitters haven't been successful against him in the past, going just 1-for-13 against him, and he has not faced them this season. 

The Royals have the better pitcher in this game and are listed at +135 for the game. I'm not really sure why. I think they are the better club overall and have the better pitcher. However, with Paddack at home, we should see fewer runs scored. Some guys are just better pitchers at home than they are on the road and it is completely possible this is the case with him. I'll back the under 8.5 for the game. — Note, my bet is void as I bet on Singer to be the starter. As I wrote this game the books have switched Singer out as the starter and inserted Daniel Lynch. I still feel confident in the under 8.5, but wouldn't take the Royals to win the game now. I will rebet the under with Lynch and Paddack on the mound.  

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024