Longshots At The 2023 PGA Championship To 'Sprinkle' On

To be fair, one of the two alphas in the 2023 PGA Championship field — World No. 1 Jon Rahm (+750) and No. 2 Scottie Scheffler (+700) — will probably win the Wanamaker Trophy.

However, Phil Mickelson (+25000) won the 2021 PGA Championship at the same odds he has for this year's event. It's possible that someone off of the radar wins at Oak Hill Country Club this week. Albeit unlikely.

Preview PGA Championship Winners

Russell Henley (90-to-1)

Henley actually has "win equity" and won the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba this season in November 2022. Which I cashed on. He has finished T19 or better in three consecutive starts including a 4th at the Masters in April.

The early feedback at Oak Hill Country Club is it could be one of the toughest courses in PGA Tour history. The rough is thick and penal so hitting fairways and being good around the green (ARG) is important here.

Well, Henley leads the field in Fairways Gained and is 20th in Strokes Gained (SG): ARG. Henley is 27th in Greens-In-Regulation gained because he is usually hitting his 2nd shot from the fairway.

Russell Henley of the United States plays his shot from the 6th tee during a practice round prior to the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Ultimately, my model courtesy of FantasyNational.com is showing value on Henley. He is 23rd in my 2023 PGA Championship power rankings but DraftKings Sportsbook has him outside the top 30 by the odds.

Bet: 0.1u on Henley +9000 and 0.15u on Top-40 (+110) at DraftKings

Odds for Russell Henley to win and place top 40 at the PGA Championship from DraftKings.

Taylor Moore (130-to-1)

Speaking of "win equity," Moore won the 2023 Valspar Championship back in March. Moore is one of the best rookies on the PGA Tour. He has finished T39 or better in nine of his last 10 starts including T15 or better in five of those.

The reason why I chose "T39" is because we are ensuring Moore's "To Win" odds (+13000) at DraftKings with a "Top-40" (+130).

Taylor Moore celebrates with the trophy and fiance Lexi Sorensen after winning the Valspar Championship 2023 at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Over his last five measured events, Moore is picking up +4.5 SG: Putting per tournament. It's a small sample size but Moore is 17th in this field for Scrambling and 26th in Opportunities Gained at long courses with difficult scoring conditions.

Golfers will be laying up to avoid Allen Creek and the hazardous sand traps at Oak Hill. This leads to a bunch of long iron shots. Moore is 12th in this field for Proximity: 175-200 yards. He is 9th in Par 4 scoring over the last 50 rounds as well.

Bet: 0.1u on Taylor Moore +13000 and 0.15u on Top-40 (+130) at DraftKings

Odds for Taylor Moore to win and place top 40 at the PGA Championship from DraftKings.

Chris Kirk (200-to-1)

I'm doubling down on Kirk after picking him in a tournament matchup bet at the 2023 PGA Championship over Emiliano Grillo. Kirk is another winner of a PGA Tour 2022-23 event.

He won The Honda Classic 2023 at PGA National (Champion Course), which is considered one of the toughest courses on Tour. Also, Kirk finished T3 at last year's PGA Championship at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Chris Kirk of the United States plays a shot on the 4th hole during the 1st round of the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills. (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Southern Hills is a comp course to Oak Hill because ARG-play is very difficult at these courses. Over the last 50 rounds, Kirk ranks 10th in SG: ARG. Oak Hill's East Course has tricky bunkers and Kirk is 18th in Sand Saves Gained.

The East Course is a Par 70 with 12 Par 4 holes and Kirk ranks 14th in Par 4 scoring. Lastly, since I already took Kirk to beat Grillo head-to-head, I won't be betting on Kirk to place top 40.

Bet: 0.1u on Chris Kirk to win (+20000) at DraftKings

Odds for Chris Kirk to win the PGA Championship from DraftKings.

Complimentary PGA Championship 2023 Coverage

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP 2023 PREVIEW: BETTING ODDS, COURSE AND EVENT

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP 2023 WINNING WAGERS INCLUDE CAMERON YOUNG, MATTHEW FITZPATRICK

FOUR PGA CHAMPIONSHIP 2023 HEAD-TO-HEAD BETS WORTH MAKING

Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season