Longshot Looks For AL MVP

American League MVP

I will be really honest here: I am pretty bad at MLB Futures. That doesn't mean I don't ever win, and it doesn't mean that I completely give up. But, a few years ago, I would bet every division, the majority of awards and other things. I realized I wasn't very good at them so I've taken a lot less of them under my belt in the past few years. I also think that waiting from March until October is a tough stretch to have the amount I place on these tied up. Geoff Clark has been really good so I advise you follow him on futures. I do have a couple of recommendations on the MVP award races though and thought I should share the AL ones here as the new season is just a few days away. 

If you look at the odds, you're actually getting decent numbers for quite a few players. Aaron Judge, your favorite it at +310. There is no question when he is healthy he is one of the top 5 players in the game. The problem is that he isn't always healthy. He easily could hit another 50+ homers, 125+ RBIs, and bat around .275 this season while leading the Yankees to the postseason once again. I'm not sure I want to back that though. This could be a revenge season considering his fielding was at least one of the reasons that Yankees dropped a game against the Dodgers and his postseason wasn't that impressive. It also could be a year where he just doesn't play nearly as well without Juan Soto in the lineup. I'm not betting him. Bobby Witt Jr. is the second favorite and I think he is as capable of anyone of capturing the award. He does everything well and can lead the league in multiple categories if things play out correctly. At +450 there is good value, and the Royals should at least compete for a playoff spot. We've seen MVPs from teams that don't make the playoffs before, though. I actually like him, but don't love it. I'd rather take a play on a longshot or two. 

The first one would be Jose Ramirez. If you look at his stats, he could be (and usually is) in the MVP conversation each season. Ramirez being in Cleveland is part of the reason he doesn't get as much national attention. I think Cleveland could win the division again this year and I think he is poised to once again be the leader. At +2200 (+1500 on DK, which is why you shop around) I think he is worth a play here. My last consideration here is Vladimir Gurrero Jr. If you've heard anything about him recently, it is that he wanted a big deal from the Blue Jays and it didn't happen. The biggest concern I have about this bet is that he is shipped off to the National League. I'm not quite sure how that would work with this bet - if it is voided or just graded as a loser automatically. Still, Guerrero Jr is one of the best players in the game and has a chance to cash in big time with a great season. If he wins the MVP, he can pretty much write his own contract. We've seen it multiple times over the years where people bet on themselves and win big. Guerrero Jr. might just be the next one to do it and at +1700 I am willing to put a little risk down. Side note, it is a little sad that Mike Trout is +1600 - he basically had a zero removed from those odds for years. 

There are numerous great players you could choose from for the MVP award, but the reality is that an injury could make or break anyone's season. That's usually why I take the longer odds. I'm taking Ramirez and Guerrero Jr., but will play both for a fraction of a unit. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024