Lock It Up: Here's Why Tennessee Titans Will Wax Green Bay Packers In NFL Week 3

NFL Week 3's theme is "Fading the overreactions to ‘Overreaction Week 2’". The Tennessee Titans (0-2) pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory last week and the Green Bay Packers (1-1) winning with a backup quarterback has skewed the betting market for their Week 3 matchup. 

After losing 24-17 to the Chicago Bears in Week 1 without allowing an offensive touchdown, Tennessee lost to the New York Jets 24-17 in a similar fashion Sunday. Like in their season opener, Titans QB Will Levis made a dreadful error against the Jets to cost his team a cover. 

Green Bay, on the other hand, rallied behind backup QB Malik Willis to beat the Indianapolis Colts 16-10 in Week 2. Packers franchise QB Jordan Love missed last week after spraining his MCL in Green Bay's 34-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil in Week 1. 

Besides the betting market mispricing this game, which I'll discuss further below, my other pro-Titans factors include their impressive underlying metrics, the Packers being "public underdogs" in Week 3, and Levis bouncing back from two embarrassing performances. 

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: Green Bay (+124) | Tennessee (-146)
• Spread: Packers +2.5 (-105) | TITANS -2.5 (-115) 
• Total — 37.5 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)

I got nervous about this pick when I first saw Love practicing Wednesday. But, since the spread didn't move after Tennessee went from -1.5 favorites in the Week 3 opener to -2.5 across most legal sportsbooks, the market doesn't expect Love to play Sunday. In the preseason look-ahead line, the Packers were -3.5 road favorites over the Titans this summer. 

Due to Love's absence, Indianapolis closed as a -2.5 favorite in Green Bay in Week 2. If you do a 4-point flip for home-field advantage, worth 1.5-2 points nowadays, the Colts would be -6.5 home favorites vs. the Packers. 

Green Bay Packers QB Malik Willis scrambles against Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 2 at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. (Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Since the Titans are only -2.5 home favorites vs. the Packers in Week 3, the market is saying Indy is 4 points better than Tennessee on a neutral field. That’s just not true, especially considering the Titans have a better defense than the Colts and a week’s worth of game-film to better prepare for Willis. 

READ: OutKick Medical Expert Dr. David Chao Explains Why He Doubts Jordan Love Plays This Week

Indianapolis lost All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner during that Green Bay game, rookie pass rusher Laiatu Latu sat Week 2 with an injury, and starting CB JuJu Brents suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. Tennessee’s defense has a clean bill of health and is more talented in the first place. 

The Titans signed two new starting cornerbacks this offseason, L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, and traded for LB Ernest Jones. Sneed was the Kansas City Chiefs’ shutdown corner last season. Awuzie was an integral part of the Cincinnati Bengals' secondary during their run to the 2022 Super Bowl. Jones was the Los Angeles Rams’ best defensive player, not named Aaron Donald. 

The Tennessee Titans defense huddles up in their game vs. the New York Jets at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. (Denny Simmons/The Tennessean-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Furthermore, the Titans still have two Pro Bowlers in the front seven: DT Jeffrey Simmons and Harold Landry. They had a good rush defense under former head coach Mike Vrabel from 2018-23 and still have the pieces to stop the run. Chicago gained 3.8 yards per rush vs. Tennessee in Week 1 and NYJ ran for 4.2 yards per carry last week. 

Finally, I have a hunch that Levis got the dumb mistakes out of his system, for now, and will play a cleaner game Sunday. He has decent weapons to work with such as RB Tony Pollard and WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. When you remove turnovers, Levis is 16th in EPA/play plus completion rate over expectation, ahead of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. 

Prediction: Titans 22, Packers 16 

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