Lions Will Rip Buccaneers To Shreds In NFL Divisional Round Sunday
I'm writing my Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions NFL divisional round handicap prior to the Saturday games because I want to give out the best price. Buccaneers-Lions kickoff Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. As of Thursday evening, Detroit is -6.5 home favorites and the total is 48.5 across the board.
Perhaps I'm wrong but I'll be shocked if the Lions don't close as -7 favorites or higher. Frankly, Detroit should be at least -7.5 favorites over Tampa Bay. I'm hoping the market is overreacting to Tampa Bay's 32-9 whooping of the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday in the wild card round.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff gets ready to snap the ball in NFL Week 6 vs. the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Otherwise, I cannot figure out why oddsmakers are booking action for the Lions -6.5. These teams met in Week 6 and Detroit spanked the Buccaneers 20-6. The Lions held the ball for 13 minutes longer. They gained six more 1st down (19-13) and 0.9 more yards per play (5.5-4.6).
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Maybe I'm falling for a trap but I'd bet Detroit up to -8. On one hand, I'm on an NFL-betting heater, going 5-1 in NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. On the other hand, I usually win a lot of money at the end of the regular season and wild card weekend before giving it all back in the divisional weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The most confusing part about this spread for the divisional round is Detroit closed as -3 road favorites in Tampa in Week 6. The Buccaneers were coming off of a bye week and the Lions have a rest edge in this game. Detroit is 7-3-1 straight up (SU) and 9-2 against the spread (ATS) with a rest edge since hiring head coach Dan Campbell in 2021.
Also, there is the 5-, or for the playoffs, a 6-point flip rule for home-field edge. I.e. the Lions should be at least -8 favorites at Ford Field since they were -3 in Tampa Bay. They are 10-3 SU with a +10.5 scoring margin as home favorites under Campbell including 4-0 SU vs. teams with a winning record.
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Furthermore, Detroit was missing star rookies, RB Jahmyr Gibbs and DB Brian Branch. Gibbs and Branch are two of the best 10-15 rookies in the NFL. Branch is probably Detroit's best cover guy and Gibbs is a dual-threat out of the backfield that can hit pay-dirt on any touch.
My takeaway is we are seeing recency bias in the market after the Bucs' victory over the Eagles Monday. But, that win was more about Philly than it was Tampa. The Eagles were banged-up and couldn't tackle.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield drops back to pass against the Detroit Lions at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Moreover, the Lions have a strength-on-weakness edge on the ground. They are third in yards per rush allowed while the Bucs are dead-last in yards carry. Detroit making Tampa Bay one-dimensional is why Baker Mayfield had his worst game of the season in Week 6.
Baker completed just 51.4% of his passes (19 of 37) for 206 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT. Mayfield had a season-worst 56.8 QB Rating. Three of Tampa Bay's 10 drives netted 20 or fewer yards and the Bucs were just 2 for 12 on 3rd down.
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Essentially, if Detroit can take away Tampa's rushing attack, I'll live with Baker trying to beat the Lions through the air. Is he capable? Yes. However, it is still Baker Mayfield and he's due for a stinker. Plus, the Lions have the highest pressure rate in the NFL.