Lions Are A Live Underdog Vs. Cowboys Saturday In NFL Week 17
A lot of sports bettors and NFL pundits are saying Week 17 is a "smash spot" for the Dallas Cowboys (10-5). They host the 2023 NFC North champion Detroit Lions (11-4) Saturday at AT&T Stadium for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Dallas Cowboys runs onto the field prior to a Week 14 game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Dallas is a perfect 7-0 straight up (SU) at home this season with a +24.4 scoring margin and 6-1 against the spread (ATS). The Lions won their 1st NFC North title ever after beating the Minnesota Vikings 30-24 in Week 16.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys odds (BetMGM)
That said, this is similar to Detroit’s Week 18 game at the Green Bay Packers last season. The Lions were eliminated from playoff contention last season when the Seattle Seahawks beat the Los Angeles Rams in overtime earlier that day.
Detroit needed LA to upset Seattle to keep its playoff hopes alive. But, with the Seahawks winning, the Packers would clinch a postseason berth by beating the Lions at home on Sunday Night Football in the final week of the season.
The market faded Detroit thinking it would be a “flat spot” since the Lions had nothing to play for. Green Bay got nearly two-thirds of the bets by kickoff, according to Pregame.com.
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell talks to QB Jared Goff before a game vs. the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Of course, Detroit head coach Dan Campbell had his guys ready to bite off kneecaps. The Lions rallied around ending Green Bay’s season. Detroit upset the Packers 20-16 in Lambeau and put an end to the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay.
You’re crazy if you think the Lions are going to come into this game flat. Fellow OutKick writer, and Detroit fan, David Hookstead literally does a weekly recap of Campbell’s epic postgame locker room speeches. Lions players are willing to run through a wall for Campbell.
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More importantly, Detroit is in a three-way tie with the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles for the 1-seed in the NFC. You know Campbell is going to instruct his guys to “control what we can control and beat the Cowboys”.
Making sure Detroit is motivated is the 1st part of this handicap. The other part is figuring out if Dallas as -6 favorites is the “too high” based on the matchup. And I’m confident there is value in the Lions at this number.
The market ranks the Cowboys as the NFL’s 3rd-best team entering Week 17, per Inpredictable.com. They are 2nd in offense and 4th in defense. I can live with Dallas’s offense being ranked 2nd.
Dallas Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons stretches prior to an NFL Thursday Night Football game vs. the Seattle Seahawks at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
But, the Cowboys are NOT the 3rd-best team in the league nor do they have the 4th-best defense. They aren't a better team than Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, and Eagles.
Kansas City is the reigning Super Bowl champs with the best coach-QB combo in the NFL. Buffalo and Miami has beaten the Cowboys in the past two weeks and Philly beat Dallas earlier this year.
Granted, the Cowboys got revenge by clobbering the Eagles in Week 14. However, I can give you a few reasons the Cowboys aren’t six points better than the Lions.
First, let’s circle back on Dallas’s aforementioned “4th-ranked defense”. The Cowboys are 27th in defensive early-down success rate (EDSR). They rely heavily on turnovers, which is unsustainable, and pass rusher Micah Parsons being a game-wrecker.
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Yet, EDSR is a predictive analytic because the whole playbook is available on 1st and 2nd downs. Detroit is 7th in offensive EDSR. As long as the Lions keep this game close, they should be more efficient than the Cowboys down-by-down.
The strength of Dallas’s defense is the pass rush. More specifically, Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. But, Detroit has a top-five offensive line and the Cowboys cannot stop the run. Dallas is 27th in ESPN’s run-stopping win rate and ranks dead-last in rushing defense success rate.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff hands the ball off to RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
If Lions QB Jared Goff has time to throw, he can carve up defenses. Detroit’s offense has a ton of weapons for Goff to use and he’s quietly having an incredible season. Goff is top-10 in most passing stats and has more 4th-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives than Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
Lastly, this is a better spot for the Lions. They are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2022 including 4-1 SU and ATS this year. Goff is 19-11 SU and 18-10-1 ATS in primetime games for his career; 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in Detroit.