Lay The Lumber: BET Orioles Run Line Vs. Royals Tuesday

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Few people have noticed but the Baltimore Orioles (19-9) are actually good this season. Baltimore is second in the AL East and 3.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles start a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals (7-22) on Tuesday.

The Orioles send out RHP Tyler Wells (1-1, 2.79 ERA) and Wells is a starter I'm high on. Wells leads MLB in WHIP (0.72) and grades above average in BB%, chase rate, and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast.

Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells throws a 2nd-inning pitch vs. Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland.

Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells throws a 2nd-inning pitch vs. Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Network)

The Royals counter with LHP Ryan Yarbrough (0-3, 6.35 ERA) who is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Per Statcast, Yarbrough is in the bottom-16th percentile or worse in chase rate, whiff rate, K%, and expected batting average.

Orioles vs. Royals Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting odds for Orioles-Royals Tuesday, May 2nd from DraftKings as of 4 p.m. ET.

Betting odds for Orioles-Royals Tuesday, May 2nd from DraftKings as of 4 p.m. ET.

First of all, Baltimore's lineup rakes lefties. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles rank seventh in both wRC+ (122) and wOBA (.346), 4th in ISO (.186), and 5th in BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching.

KC's lineup ranks dead last in wRC+ (61), wOBA (.262), BB/K rate (0.24), and 29th in ISO (.108) against right-handed pitching. Also, the Orioles are 9-4 straight up (SU) vs. lefties and the Royals are 5-17 vs. righties.

Baltimore being a road favorite is still a new thing. Since 2022, the Orioles are 3-0 SU and on the run line (RL) as road favorites when Wells gets the start. Baltimore has a +3.0 margin of victory in those games.

This is Yarbrough's second start this season but he has seven bullpen appearances. The most Yarbrough has pitched in a game this season is four innings. If Yarbrough doesn't give the Royals a "quality start" they are in trouble.

Orioles 1B Ryan Mountcastle bats during the sixth inning against the Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Orioles 1B Ryan Mountcastle bats during the sixth inning against the Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. (Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

Kansas City's bullpen is 24th in FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), 26th in HR/9 rate, 24th in WAR, and 29th in hard-hit rate. Baltimore's bullpen ranks 1st in both FIP and WAR and 6th in both HR/9 and hard-hit rates.

There has been sharp line movement in the betting market toward Baltimore. Per Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on the Orioles RL. Baltimore's RL has been increased from a +105 opener up to the current number.

I'm okay with following a crowd in MLB betting because who's moving the lines for an Orioles-Royals game on May 2nd? The public isn't betting on this game, it's mostly professional MLB handicappers.

BET: Orioles -1.5 (-105) RL at DraftKings, up to -115

Baltimore's RL odds vs. the Royals Tuesday, May 2nd from DraftKings.

Baltimore's RL odds vs. the Royals Tuesday, May 2nd from DraftKings.