Lakeshow, Raptors On The NBA Sunday Bounce-Back Bet Slip

The only thing cornier than the NBA recently for ya boy is the NCAA Tournament. Neither have been fun or profitable. Actually, March Madness has been fun. It always is. But, the NBA is hot garbage.

Still, I don't feel like going to the gym Sunday or running personal errands. Instead I'm going to sit around and bet too much money on basketball. Fade or follow at your own risk.

The NBA games I'm betting Sunday are the Toronto Raptors visiting the Milwaukee Bucks and the Orlando Magic playing their 2nd straight game in the Crypto.com Arena, this time vs. the Los Angeles Lakers.

(BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” and “tanking” eras. It's best to wait until the final injury reports come out before placing a bet).

Toronto Raptors (35-36) at Milwaukee Bucks (50-20), 8 p.m. ET

The Bucks are 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Raptors this season. But, Toronto ranks 5th in adjusted net rating over the last two weeks, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG) and Milwaukee is 12th.

Also, Raptors head coach Nick Nurse is one of the sharpest defensive minds in the NBA. Over their last three meetings, Toronto has held Giannis Antetokounmpo to 40.0% or lower in field goal rate.

Giannis tries to put up a shot over the backboard vs. the Raptors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)

The Raptors have three long, athletic wings to throw at Giannis such as Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. Toronto's defense has improved greatly since trading for C Jakob Poeltl.

According to CTG, the Raptors allow 17.8 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Poeltl is on the floor. Poeltl ranks in the 100% of bigs in on/off defensive rating.

Lastly, Toronto is 10-4 ATS when underdogs of +3 or greater this season, 11-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in its past seven visits to Milwaukee.

NBA Best Bet #1: Raptors +7.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +7

The Toronto Raptors' odds at the Milwaukee Bucks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, March 19th at 3 p.m. ET.

Orlando Magic (29-42) at Los Angeles Lakers (34-37), 9:30 p.m. ET

This line feels fishy based on these teams' recent performances and the fact that the Lakers demolished the Magic 129-110 in Orlando without Anthony Davis for their 1st meeting this season.

Orlando upset a Kawhi Leonard-less Los Angeles Clippers Saturday 113-108 at the Crypt as 6.5-point underdogs. LAL has lost two straight vs. the Luka Doncic-less Dallas Mavericks and tanking Houston Rockets.

First of all, the Lakers being -6 the day after the Clippers were -6.5 is suspicious. Everyone has Kawhi-less LAC power-ranked higher than LAL when they are missing LeBron James.

Anthony Davis celebrates his basket with teammates in the Lakers' win over the Memphis Grizzlies at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Harry How/Getty Images)

But aside for their past two games, the Lakers are playing better than the Magic lately. Over the past two weeks, LAL is 7th in adjusted net rating and 6th in ATS margin, per CTG. While Orlando is 22nd in both adjusted net rating and ATS margin.

Also, the Lakers beat the teams they are supposed to beat this season. LAL is 9-2 SU (+10.7 SU margin) and ATS (+4.9 spread differential) as favorites of -4 or greater.

Finally, the Lakers have a better shot profile on both ends of the floor. Per CTG, LAL attempt the highest rate of shots at the rim and Orlando is 28th in defensive field goal percentage vs. shots at the rim.

NBA Best Bet #2: Lakers -6 (-110) at DraftKings, up to -6.5

The Los Angeles Lakers' odds vs. the Orlando Magic from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, March 19th at 3 p.m. ET.