Knicks, 'Dame Time' In An NBA Gambling Trifecta For Sunday, March 5
This is the final weekend in March the NBA will upstage college hoops from a viewing standpoint. Who knows what kind of off-the-court shenanigans will occur in the NBA but Selection Sunday is next week.
There are several interesting games including the primetime showdown between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. On top of Knicks-Celtics, I also handicap and bet Hornets-Nets and Trail Blazers-Magic.
BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” era. It might be best to wait until the final injury reports are released before placing a bet.
Charlotte Hornets (20-45) at Brooklyn Nets (35-28), 6 p.m. ET
Should the Nets be 8-point favorites over anyone in the NBA? They have the worst net rating (nRTG) in basketball since the All-Star Game.
Granted, the Hornets are 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) since losing former All-Star PG LaMelo Ball to a fractured ankle.
But, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Ball's adjusted on/off nRTG is only +1.0, which ranks in the 58% of point guards in the NBA. The Hornets should overcome the loss of Ball to cover +8 Sunday.
Charlotte wings Kelly Oubre Jr. and Gordon Hayward's production can match Brooklyn wings Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges. New Nets starting PG Spencer Dinwiddie is not a true PG and doesn't get looks for his teammates.
Hornets forwards P.J. Washington high-fives teammates Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre Jr. at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Brooklyn has a bunch of new players in their starting 5 via the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades. Including Johnson and Bridges from the Suns and Dinwiddie and wing Dorian-Finny Smith from the Mavs.
During the Nets-Knicks broadcast Wednesday, the commentators mentioned that Brooklyn has a different strategy defending pick-and-rolls that the new players aren't familiar with yet.
Also, the Hornets attempt the 3rd-highest volume of field goals at the rim, per CTG, and Nets C Nic Claxton is their only true "big". Post-All-Star break, the Nets are 25th in paint points per game (PPG) allowed.
There is some recency bias with these teams to fade. The Hornets have lost two straight and the Nets upset the Celtics 115-105 in Boston in their last outing Friday.
Most of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Brooklyn, per VSIN, based on the assumption that Charlotte is tanking. The logic is solid but the Hornets still have pros in their starting 5 and the Nets are bad.
NBA Best Bet #1: Hornets +8 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +6.5
New York Knicks (38-27) at Boston Celtics (45-19), 7:30 p.m. ET
Boston is regressing post-All-Star break and NYK is playing like a title contender. The Celtics are 19th in nRTG over their last five games at -2.4 and the Knicks have the best nRTG in the NBA at +14.4.
For the record, Boston is a legit title contender and NYK's peak is most likely the Eastern Conference finals, But, the Knicks smacked the Celtics 109-94 in New York Monday, winning all "four factors".
NYK is 2-1 SU (+1.0 SU margin) and ATS (+5.8 SU margin) vs. Boston this season. The Knicks are out-performing the Celtics in three of the "four factors" in those meetings.
More importantly, the Knicks are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS since trading for wing Josh Hart. Per CTG, NYK scores 28.9 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Hart is on the floor.
Knicks' Julius Randle high-fives Josh Hart during the game vs. the Celtics at Madison Square Garden. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Knicks have an edge in the frontcourt since the Celtics are missing defensive anchor C Robert Williams III. Knicks C Mitchell Robinson has been ballin' lately and has a +7.8 on/off nRTG this season, per CTG.
Finally, New York is moving the ball better and getting better looks than Boston. Since the All-Star Game, the Knicks have a better offensive and defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate. The 3-pointer is the biggest factor in NBA games.
NBA Best Bet #2: Knicks +6 (-110), down to +5
Portland Trail Blazers (29-34) at Orlando Magic (27-37), 6 p.m. ET
The Magic beat the Trail Blazers 109-106 in their meeting Jan. 10. Portland is on a three-game losing skid (0-3 ATS) to the Warriors, Pelicans and Hawks.
However, these are understandable losses. The Warriors hosted the Trail Blazers and Golden State is one of the toughest places to visit in the NBA.
Portland then hosted New Orleans in the second of a back-to-back. The Pelicans were slumping at the time and due for a win. Then the Trail Blazers flew across the country to play the Hawks who are another good home team.
Damian Lillard drives to the basket on the Orlando Magic at the Moda Center Arena in Portland, Oregon. (Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)
Orlando has alternated between winning and losing over the past 10 games (4-6 ATS) with the most recent being a 117-106 win at the Hornets.
The Magic are 0-5 ATS after their last five SU victories. They are 3-4 SU (-2.7 SU margin) and 2-5 ATS (-7.0 ATS margin) as home favorites.
Damian Lillard has been on a tear lately and Orlando has bad defenders in its backcourt. Lillard is averaging 38.3 PPG on .498/.401/.955 shooting. Portland can still make the playoffs and Dame Time isn't tanking.