Kirby Will Keep Padres Bats At Bay

Padres vs. Mariners, 9:40 ET

A few years ago when the MLB introduced the idea that there would be more playoff teams, I was a bit hesitant about embracing the idea. I liked the three division winners and thought that one Wild Card was a nice consolation prize for the remaining teams. They expanded it to three total Wild Cards and six teams for the first time last season. That has helped teams like the Padres and Mariners who square off today still have a shot at the postseason even without being able to get their respective division crowns.

The Padres stumbled through most of the early season, and finally were able to get healthy or have everything click or whatever other reason you want to supply here. I say that because, frankly, I can't really point to anything specific that happened that made the Padres start winning games. Their offense was good at the beginning of the year, the pitching has been fine. They just started winning instead of losing. The Mets, for example, turned their season around too, but they increased their scoring significantly. The Padres have been the same team for the majority of the year, but they've been great over the past couple of months now positioning themselves to make the playoffs. I'd argue they might be one of the most dangerous teams to face in the entire league. Why? Part is the offense, but part is also the pitching staff, led by tonight's starter, Yu Darvish. Darvish missed a lot of this season for personal reasons, but he is back. This is just his second start since his return. In his first, he allowed three earned runs over 2.2 innings against Detroit. I'm not sure how many pitches he will be allowed as they ramp him up for the playoffs, but he threw 66 pitches in that start, I'd imagine somewhere around 80 would be reasonable in this one. He has been very good against Mariners hitters in the past, holding them to a .184 average in 103 at-bats.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 07: Yu Darvish #11 of the San Diego Padres throws a pitch during the seventh inning of game one of the NL Wild Card Series against the New York Mets at Citi Field on October 07, 2022 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

Seattle had a different season than the Padres have had. For most of the season, the Mariners were leading the AL West. They didn't even look like they had a real threat to the division crown for most of the season. The Astros finally started stepping up and the Rangers never fully healed to put pressure on the Mariners. The biggest issue has been the offense sucks and has sucked all season. The Mariners have 30 more strikeouts than any other team in the league, they have the lowest batting average in the league - lower than the White Sox, a team that has lost over 110 games. The fact that they are even in the race with this offense is a testament to how good their pitching staff has been. One of the best pitchers for their team is tonight's starter, George Kirby. Kirby is 11-10 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He is also sporting 162 strikeouts. All of those numbers are top-30 in the league. Kirby did struggle in August, allowing 19 earned runs in 25 innings. He rebounded well in his first September start, going six innings and allowing just two earned runs. Overall the Padres have hit him well in the past, going 11-for-29 against him, but they only have one RBI and two extra bases in those at-bats.

The Mariners are actually kind of hot right now, winning four of their past five games. The Padres have lost three of their past five games but have faced some of the hotter teams in baseball lately. Darvish is a bit of a concern for me in this one though. Even against a terrible offense, he is trying to work himself back into form. I'm going to take the Mariners at home, where they've been outstanding, and with Kirby on the mound. Back Seattle to take this one down. 
 

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