Kentucky Will Trample Lil Ole Ball State In Week 1 Saturday
The SEC's Kentucky Wildcats host the Ball State Cardinals from Mid-American Conference (MAC) on Saturday in Week 1 at Kroger Field in Lexington.
Kentucky took a step back in 2022 to finish 7-6 straight up (SU) and 8-5 against the spread (ATS). The Wildcats got shutout 21-0 by Iowa in the Music City Bowl. In 2021, UK was 10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS and beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl 20-17.
Former Wildcats QB, and current Tennessee Titan, Will Levis opted out of the Music City Bowl to prep for the 2023 NFL Draft. UK poached QB Devin Leary from NC State in the transfer portal this offseason.
Ball State had its second straight losing season last year and the 6th in Mike Neu's seven years as the Cardinals coach. They were 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in 2022 and things aren't exactly trending up for Ball State.
The Cardinals have a 4.5-win total (-145/+120) at DraftKings Sportsbook entering 2023. Ball State has the 9th-best odds to win the MAC (+3000). Kentucky's win total is 7 (-120/+100) and the Wildcats also have the 9th-best odds to win their conference (+10000).
Recently, UK has been profitable in non-conference play. Since 2018, Kentucky is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS vs. non-SEC competition. Conversely, Ball State is 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS against non-conference teams over that span.
Ball State at Kentucky Week 1 (DraftKings)
Ball State-Kentucky Week 1 betting odds from DraftKings as of Wednesday, August 30th.
Even though Levis got drafted into the NFL, Kentucky's QB situation is better this season. In 2021, Levis completed 66% of his passes for 2,826 yards with a 24/13 TD/INT rate. He did add nine rushing TDs in 2021 but only 376 rushing yards on 107 carries.
Leary threw for 3,433 yards, completed 65.7% of his passes, and had a 35/5 TD/INT rate in 2021. Last season, Leary got injured after six games but he did have a down year up until then.
Regardless, NC State was 5-1 and its only loss was at Clemson at the time of Leary’s injury. Levis also had a down year in 2022 and Leary’s 2021 numbers were better.
Kentucky QB Devin Leary throws the ball during open practice for the fans. (Scott Utterback/Courier Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Plus, in 2022, Levis gained -107 yards on the ground with only 2 rushing TDs. Essentially, Leary is a lot more productive in the air and Levis doesn’t make up for it in the rushing department.
Levis’s regression in 2021 was partially due to Wildcats offensive coordinator Liam Coen going to the NFL last season. Coen quit his NFL job and returns to Kentucky this season.
Furthermore, the Wildcats return 10 offensive starters, which includes transfers that started at their previous school last year. UK’s top-five WRs from last season return and four starting offensive linemen.
KENTUCKY QB DEVIN LEARY OFFERS HIS PERSPECTIVE TO PLAYERS WHO ENTER TRANSFER PORTAL IN NIL ERA
College football expert Phill Steele predicts the Wildcats will have the “most improved offensive line in the SEC” in his 2023 season preview. If UK's defense doesn’t regress much this season, the Wildcats will beat Ball State by margin.
Tennessee is Kentucky’s only opponent that scored more than 24 points in 2022 when the Volunteers crushed the Wildcats 44-6 in Week 10. Kentucky lost to the eventual champion Georgia 16-6 and held the Bulldogs in check.
Wildcats football coach Mark Stoops at Media Day at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. (Matt Stone/Louisville Courier Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Kentucky has just five returning defense starters in 2023. But, the Wildcats return just five defensive starters last season. Their points per game (PPG) fell from 21.7 PPG in 2021 to 19.2 PPG in 2022.
Coach Mark Stoops has turned UK into a feisty football program. After three straight losing seasons to start his Kentucky coaching gig in 2013, Stoops has two 10-win seasons and a winning record in six of the past seven years.
Based on all the data, the Cardinals are most likely a 5-to-7-win team in the MAC. The Wildcats are consistently a winning team in the SEC. And, as we all know, the SEC rules college football.