The 150th Kentucky Derby: Previewing The Race, Picks To Consider And The Exact Betting Slip You Should Turn In
Everyone gets into horse racing at this time of the year. The 1st leg of the 2024 Triple Crown is Saturday, May 49ers , with the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, aka the "fastest two minutes in sports". After the Derby are the Preakness Stakes (May 18th) at Pimlico Race Course and the Belmont Stakes (June 8th) at Saratoga Race Course this year.
The Derby is Race 12 on "Kentucky Derby Day". Post time for the Grade I Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET. It's the biggest field of any American race (20 horses) at the longest distance (1.25 miles) any of these three-year-olds have run. The prize pool for the Derby is $5 million and the winner walks away with $3.1 million.
Now, betting on horse racing can be intimidating because of all the options. You can bet a horse to Win (1st), "Place" (2nd), and "Show" (3rd) or "Across the Board", which is betting all three. There are exotics such as "Exacta", "Trifecta", and "Superfecta" for those searching for massive paydays.
In an exacta, you bet 2+ horses to finish 1st or 2nd. A trifecta includes 3+ horses for the Win-Place-Show. A superfecta is 4+ horses to finish 1-4. By "boxing" an exacta, bettors can win if at least two of their picks Win or Place. The same goes for trifecta and superfecta boxes. "Keying" an exotic allows you to put your winner "up top" with horses underneath to finish in any order.
Understood, right? Probably not. As a daily sports bettor, I have to re-learn horse betting when the Triple Crown is here. And I took a course in "Introduction to Racetrack Management" in college, grew up in Saratoga, and went to the racetrack with my grandma every summer. Nevertheless, let's just have some fun and try to make some money.
2024 Kentucky Derby post positions, morning line odds
Favorites
17- Fierceness
- Morning Line (ML) odds: 5-2
- Record (Starts-Win-Place-Show): 5-3-0-1
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: John Velazquez
The horse handicappers I follow all say Fierceness is the best horse running in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. He won the Florida Derby, a prep race for the Derby, and winners of that Grade I race perform better in the Run for the Roses than any winners from the other Kentucky prep races. And Fierceness won by 13.5 lengths!
His 110 Beyer Speed Figure — a Daily Racing Form (DRF) stat — at the Florida Derby was the highest in a race for any horse in this field. As a two-year-old, Fierceness won the Grade I Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November at Santa Anita. He had a 105 Beyer in the Breeders' Cup. Only one other horse in the Kentucky Derby has a 100+ Beyer in a race (3- Mystik Dan at the Grade I Arkansas Derby in March).
Kentucky Derby contender Fierceness works with jockey John Velazquez during training Friday morning at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (Matt Stone/The Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)
If Fierceness runs like he did in those two races, he's winning the 1st leg of the Triple Crown. Even though no horse has won from the 17-post, it's a great starting position for Fierceness. His top-end speed is so much faster than the rest of the field, Velazquez doesn't have to worry about getting him toward the inside early. Fierceness will have a "clean trip" and can put on the burners on the final stretch.
There's a world where Fierceness' trip is difficult, making these 5-2 odds (+250 in sports betting terms) too expensive. If there's a fast pace, perhaps he uses too much energy to get into position for the home stretch and can't put on the burners late. Fierceness may get stuck in the back and have too many horses to pass if it's a slow-paced race.
I will use Fierceness "up top" in a couple of exotic wagers to maximize his value. But, because of his pricey odds and post position, I won't have a Win, Place, or Show bets on him.
2- Sierra Leone
- ML odds: 3-1
- Record: 4-3-1-0
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
He lost to the No. 1 Dornoch at the Remsen Grade II Stakes at the Aqueduct in December. Otherwise, Sierra Leone would be undefeated. His Beyer speeds have improved in all four races: 71, 91, 95, and 98. Also, Sierra Leone's trainer, Chad Brown, is a four-time Eclipse Award winner for "Outstanding Trainer" from 2016-19. But, I'm "tossing" him due to the price and post position.
The No. 2 post is a bad draw for Sierra Leone. His early pace of "61" and the three-year-old will get crunched inside the rail and have a tough trip. There is a chance Gaffalione intentionally breaks out of the gate slowly, runs Sierra Leone towards the outside early, and runs down the pace horses on the home stretch. Yet, that's gambling and I have to pick and choose my horses.
4- Catching Freedom
- ML odds: 8-1
- Record: 5-3-0-1
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
This horse has a great jockey-trainer combo. Cox is a back-to-back Eclipse Award-winning trainer from 2020-21. His horse, Mandaloun, won the 2010 Kentucky Derby and Prat rode Country House to a 2019 Run for the Roses win. Catching Freedom broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in October, so he is familiar with this track.
Catching Freedom walks off the track on a brisk morning at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
His Beyer speed figures have improved in all five career races. Catching Freedom ran the 2nd-fastest time out of 58 horses in a five-furlong work at Churchill Downs Saturday. I'll be using Catching Freedom in my exotics but I like a couple of longer shots for my Win, Place, Show looks.
11- Forever Young (Japan)
- ML odds: 10-1
- Record: 5-5-0-0
- Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
- Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Technically, 10-1 (+1000) might not be a favorite but Forever Young is my favorite horse running the Kentucky Derby. He is trying to be the 1st Japanese horse to win the Derby. According to the Courier Journal in Louisville, Kentucky, Japanese horses are 0-for-4 in the Derby since 2019 and the best finish is 6th. Forever Young's last win was the Grade II UAE Derby in March and the last 19 UAE winners missed the top four at the Kentucky Derby.
That said, Japan is the 2nd-best horse racing country behind the USA, and Forever Young "might be the most convincing candidate", according to the DRF. The 11-horse has faster "Timeform Rating" speeds in all five of his career races concurrently. Those races have all been at least one mile long. Based on his resume and this weaker field, Forever Young is one of my picks to win the Run for the Roses.
'Dark Horses' for the Kentucky Derby 2024
1- Dornoch
- ML Odds: 20-1
- Record: 6-3-2-0
- Trainer: Danny Gargan
- Jockey: Luis Saez
No one I have listened to gives Dornoch a chance because he's running out of the 1-post and Ferdinand in 1986 was the last horse to win from the 1-post. But, Dornoch’s 118 "early pace" is the 3rd-fastest among the 17 American-based thoroughbreds in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field, per the DRF. More importantly, Dornoch has a championship pedigree.
He is the grandson of Big Brown and Curlin and the full-brother of last year's Derby winner, Mage. Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in 2008 and won the Eclipse Award as the American Champion Three-Year-Old Male Horse that year. Curlin won back-to-back Eclipse American Champion awards and "made the money" in every Triple Crown race in 2007 with a win at the Preakness.
Dornoch beat the current 2nd betting choice in the Kentucky Derby, Sierra Leone, by a nose to win the Remsen Grade II Stakes at the Aqueduct in December 2023. He was the top choice in the Remsen at 1.70. At post time, Dornoch could go off at 40-1 or higher. Finally, given that price and his elite early speed, I'll absolutely use Dornoch in my exotics.
18- Stronghold
- ML odds: 20-1
- Record: 6-3-3-0
- Trainer: Philip D'Amato
- Jockey: Antonio Fresu
His post position and running next to the favorite plays into his strategy. Stronghold is a "stalker", so he likes to hang in the middle. I could see Stronghold drafting his much faster neighbor and top betting choice, Fierceness, who then runs out of gas, opening the door for Stronghold. Plus, the D'Amato trainee has been part of a winning exacta in all six career races. Four of those were graded stakes races.
Jockey Joel Rosario and Stronghold cross the finish line to win the Grade III Stakes Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico. (Ivan Pierre Aguirre/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Three of Stronghold's previous four works have been superb. He ran a brisk 59 seconds in a five-furlong work Sunday at Churchill Downs. Stronghold ran the fastest time out of 70 horses at Santa Anita April 20th in a four-furlong work. At the end of March, Stronghold ran a blazing-fast 58-second five-furlong work. This is another horse that could go off at 40-to-1 or higher. But, unlike Dornoch, I'll bet Stronghold "Across the Board".
Kentucky Derby 2024 Bet Slip
- $1 Superfecta Key: 17/ 1-4-11-18 for a $24 total bet.
- $1 Trifecta Key: 17/ 1-4-11-18 for a $12 total bet.
- $1 Exacta Box: 4-11-17-18 for a $12 total bet.
- $12 Across the Board: 11- Forever Young for a $36 total bet.
- $5 Across the Board: 18- Stronghold for a $15 total bet.
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