Kentucky Derby, 'Lillies For The Fillies' Picks: Edgewood, Kentucky Oaks

Before Saturday's Kentucky Derby, aka Run for the Roses, is the Lillies For the Fillies at Churchill Downs in Louisville Friday. Women and dudes will be dressed to the nines in their best pink outfits on May 3rd to enjoy the Kentucky Oaks 2024. The Oaks is a Grade I Stakes that headlines a 13-race card and is the biggest race in America for three-year-old fillies. I'm not the fashion writer for OutKick, I'm the betting writer. So, I will stick to what I know and give my picks for the Grade II Edgewood Stakes and Oaks. 

Kentucky Oaks Day 2024 Picks 

Race 10: Grade II Edgewood Stakes (4:34 p.m. ET post) 

An 11-horse, one-and-1/6th-mile race on the turf for three-year-old fillies with a $600,000 purse. 

4- Buchu

• Morning Line (ML) odds: 4-1
• Record (Starts-Win-Place-Show): 7-3-0-2
• Jockey: Martin Garcia
• Trainer: Philip Bauer

Her sire (dad) is Justify, who won the 2018 Triple Crown. Buchu has won at Churchill Downs at this distance and on the turf track by four-and-3/4th lengths. Two of her last three works at Churchill Downs in prep for the Edgewood were extremely fast. A "fast pace" is less than 12 seconds per furlong. She ran 47 seconds in a four-furlong work at Churchill April 26th and March 29th. Three wins in her last four outings and two were Grade II Stakes races. 

5- Mo Fox Given 

• ML odds: 8-1
• Record: 8-2-2-2
• Jockey: Junior Alvarado
• Trainer: Philip Bauer

The fastest horse in this field. Broke her maiden (won her 1st race) on turf at this distance. The 5's seven races since have been one mile long. Regardless, In the trifecta in six of eight career races. Mo Fox Given is a "closer" with a late pace of 107. Buchu, the 2nd betting choice, is a closer too, so Mo Fox Given doesn't have to worry about falling too far behind. 

Hard To Justify with jockey Flavien Prat wins the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on Turf at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. (Horsephotos/Getty Images)

9- Hard to Justify 

• ML odds: 2-1
• Record: 3-0-0
• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Trainer: Chad Brown

She is undefeated and the 2nd-fastest horse in the Edgewood, according to FanDuel Racing. Two of the 9's wins were in Grade II and I stakes races. All three wins were on turf tracks, two at a one-and-1/6th-mile distance. Brown is a four-time Eclipse Award winner of "Outstanding Trainer" from 2016-19. 

$1 Trifecta Box: 4-5-9 for $6 

• By "boxing" the trifecta, these three horses can win, place, or show in any order.

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RELATED: The 150th Kentucky Derby: Previewing The Race, Picks To Consider And The Exact Betting Slip You Should Turn In

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Race 11: Grade I Kentucky Oaks (5:51 p.m. ET) 

A 14-horse race for three-year-old fillies at one-and-1/8th mile on a sloppy dirt track with a $1.5 million purse. 

3- Where's My Ring 

• ML odds: 15-1
• Record: 8-1-3-1
• Jockey: Jose Lezcano
• Trainer: Val Brinkerhoff

Three of her last six works were blazing fast. The 3 had a 46-second four-furlong work at Churchill April 26th and a 47-second work at Santa Anita in February. Where's My Ring won at this distance in her last time out, the Grade III Gazelle at the Aqueduct last month. Tied with the 2nd-betting choice, 5-Thorpedo Anna (5-1), for the fastest horse in the Oaks field. 

5- Thorpedo Anna

• ML odds: 5-1
• Record: 4-3-1-0
• Jockey: Brian Hernandez
• Trainer: Kenny McPeek

The 5-horse won her only race in 2024, the Grade II Fantasy Stakes by four lengths at Oaklawn in March. Thorpedo Anna ran a 59-second five-furlong work, which was 3rd out of 25 horses at Churchill April 26th. Again, tied with Where's My Ring for the fastest horse in this field, per FanDuel Racing. Runs faster early and has won three of four career races despite starting on the outside. 

Kentucky Oaks 2024 contenders Tarifa and since-scratched Gin Gin workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (Matt Stone/The Courier Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK)

8- Tarifa 

• ML odds: 7-2
• Record: 5-4-0-0
• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Trainer: Brad Cox

She's improved in Beyer Speed figures — a proprietary stat from the Daily Racing Form — in four consecutive races. Cox is a back-to-back Eclipse Award-winning trainer from 2020-21. Tarifa won in both races as the top betting choice, including her last time out in the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks in March. She ran a "90" Beyer at Fair Grounds in the Grade II Rachel Alexandra in February. 

13- Just FYI 

• ML odds: 9-2
• Record: 4-3-1-0
• Jockey: Junior Alvarado
• Trainer: William Mott

Another daughter of Justify. Eclipse award-winning, hall of fame trainer, Mott. Just FYI won her 1st three starts, including the Grade I Breeders' Cup for two-year-old fillies at Santa Anita in November. She finished 2nd in her last time, the Grade I Ashland at Keeneland last month. But, that was Just FYI's 1st race in 2024 and she "outran her odds". 

PICKS: 

• $1 Superfecta Key: 13/ 3-5-8 for $6
• $10 Win: 13-Just FYI

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