Kentucky Derby 2024 Day: American Turf, Churchill Downs, Turf Classic Picks
The 150th Kentucky Derby is essentially the Super Bowl of horse racing. Trainers prepare year-round to win the 1st leg of the Triple Crown in the hopes of reaching horse-racing immortality. Most casual sports fans will tune in to the Derby five minutes before post time (6:57 p.m. ET).
However, in addition to the Run for the Roses, there are 13 other races at Churchill Downs in Louisville Saturday, May 4th, including seven more Graded Stakes races. For those who want to start betting the ponies earlier, here are picks for three Graded races before the Derby.
Other Kentucky Derby Day 2024 Races
Race 9: Grade II American Turf Stakes (3:40 p.m. ET post)
A 14-horse, one-and-1/6th-mile race on the turf for three-year-olds with a $600,000 purse.
6- Neat
- Morning Line (ML) odds: 6-1
- Record (Starts-Win-Place-Show): 6-4-0-0
- Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
- Trainer: Rob Atras
According to the Daily Racing Form (DRF), Neat "has never been beaten in a turf route race, winning four such starts, including the Transylvania [Grade III]" at Keeneland last month. Two horses in the Transylvania (3-Lagynos and 11-Cugino) are racing in the American Turf. Neat is 3-0-0 in four career races at this distance. His "86" Beyer figure at the Transylvania is the 3rd-fastest speed for any American horse in this race.
11- Cugino
- ML odds: 10-1
- Record: 4-1-3-0
- Jockey: Javier Castellano
- Trainer: Claude McGaughey III
The 6-horse in the American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby Day 2024, Neat, on the inside rail, noses out the challenger, Cugino, at the Transylvania Stakes in Lexington, Kentucky. (Matt Stone/The Courier Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK)
At least an "80" Beyer in all four career races. Cugino has been in the top two in all those outings. His three Places have been by one length, a neck, and a nose. His one win was by a nose as well. I.e. the 11-horse is battle-tested. He's been the favorite in two of his races and outran his odds in the other two. Cugino has raced at this distance three times including in his only win.
13- Can Group
- ML odds: 15-1
- Record: 7-2-0-2
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Trainer: Mark Casse
The best "closer" in the American Turf with a "late pace" of 110. DRF says this could be a nice setup for him because of the fast "early pace" from horses running out of the 1-3 posts. Can Group won the Grade II Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland on this surface and at this distance. His experience at this distance helps and if there is a good early speed, perhaps the 13-horse can run the field down the stretch.
$1 Exacta Box: 6-11-13 for $6
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Race 10: Grade I Churchill Down Stakes (4:31 p.m. ET post)
Ten runners on a seven-furlong "muddy" dirt track for four-year-olds and up with a $1 million purse.
4- Mr. Wireless
- ML odds: 6-1
- Record: 18-7-4-3
- Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
- Trainer: William Calhoun
Mr. Wireless is tied for the 2nd-fastest Beyer (102) for a race in this field in a win at Fair Grounds his last time out. Has finished in the money (Win-Place-Show) in nine of his last 10 races. Ran three consecutive Graded Stakes races last year.
Most of the 4-horse's races are more than a mile long, so Mr. Wireless will be comfortable at this sprint. He's won three of his four races as the top betting choice and consistently outruns his odds. Finally, he is 3-2-1-0 on wet tracks and the dirt will be "muddy" Saturday.
$10 Win: 4-Mr. Wireless
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Race 11: Grade I Turf Classic Stakes (5:27 p.m. ET post)
A 10-horse race at one-and-1/8th distance on the turf with a $1 million purse.
1- Integration
- ML odds: 5-1
- Record: 5-3-0-1
- Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
- Trainer: Claude McGaughey III
I'm counting on a "pace melt" since Integration, the 2-horse, and 4-horse don't have fast "early paces". Cellist (3-horse) is an above-average "early pace" but he performs better on the outside. He finished 11th out of 12 horses on the Churchill Downs turf at this distance when lined up as the 1-horse in November.
Integration has run faster in four of his five career races. But, he had back-to-back "98" Beyers to win the Hill Prince Grade II Stakes at Aqueduct and a disappointing 5th-place finish at the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational at Gulf Stream. Integration has run four straight Graded races with two wins at this distance on turf.
5- Program Trading (GB)
- ML odds: 9-2
- Record: 5-4-1-0
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Trainer: Chad Brown
He's the 2nd-betting choice among British thoroughbreds in this field with 11-Naval Power as the ML-favorite at 7-2. Program Trading has never run a bad race. The 5-horse's worst finish is a Place and he's run in three straight Graded Stakes races. Two were Grade I races (Saratoga Derby and Hollywood Derby at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club) and one was at this distance. Lastly, Brown is one of the best trainers in the business: Four-time Eclipse Award winner for "Outstanding Trainer" from 2016-19.
10- Siege of Boston
- ML odds: 15-1
- Record: 15-3-5-5
- Jockey: Junior Alvarado
- Trainer: James Toner
Siege of Boston has run a 90+ Beyer in seven of his last eight times out, including three consecutive Graded Stakes races. The 10-horse has hit the money in 12 of his last 13 races and six straight and all three career races at this distance. A "clean trip" would make him a threat since he's a "closer" with the 2nd-fastest "late pace" in this field.
PICK(s):
- $10 Win: 5- Program Trading
- $1 Trifecta Box: 1, 5, 10 for $6
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