Kentucky Derby 2023 Betting Picks Breakdown: Favorite Forte Scratched Late; Two Phil's Is The Choice
Even though the Kentucky Derby is on the 1st Saturday of every May, it always sneaks up on me. The 149th “Run for the Roses” at Churchill Downs in Louisville has a 6:57 p.m. ET post time Saturday, May 6th.
This is the 1st race of the Triple Crown. The 2nd is the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, which runs on the 3rd Saturday of May. The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York wraps up the Triple Crown.
UPDATE: Early Saturday morning, the favorite horse FORTE was scratched from the race.
The field rounds the 4th turn in the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Let me be clear before proceeding: I bet four, maybe five horse races per year. These include all of the Triple Crown races, the Travers Stakes in Saratoga, New York since I'm from Saratoga, and the Breeders' Cup Championship.
Kentucky Derby 2023 Program
Two Phil's (8-1)
This horse's trainer, Larry Rivelli, has the highest winning percentage (26%) over the last year out of any trainer at the Kentucky Derby. In 325 starts this year, Rivelli has an 85-58-45 Win-Pl-SH record.
Two Phil's ran his fastest Beyer speed figure "101" in a win at the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. That "101" Beyer number is the highest among all the horses in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
Six of Two Phil's eight career starts have been with a wide post position. But, Two Phil's won both starts in middle positions, including at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense Grade III at 1 1/16 miles.
Lastly, Two Phil's had the fastest time in his last two works. Two Phil's was 1st out of 30 horses that worked on April 27th and 1st out of 12 a week prior albeit both at Hawthrone.
Confidence Game (17-1)
A majority of the horses at the Kentucky Derby have run in the last six weeks but not Confidence Game who's had the last 70 days off. This a move rarely seen in Derby prep pulled by trainer Keith Desormeaux.
FanDuel TV's Michael Joyce said on a recent The Ringer Gambling Show that Desormeaux loves how Confidence Game looks and is excited about his horse's chances at the Kentucky Derby.
According to Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Forum (DRF), Confidence Game “looked terrific” in a five-furlong work Saturday and a work Wednesday.
Confidence Game runs on the track during the morning training for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Confidence Game had the fastest work on April 23rd at Churchill Downs among 54 other horses and the 5th-fastest at Churchill out of 28 horses three weeks prior. He has four career starts at Churchill Down with a 2-0-1 Win-PL-SH record.
His last race was his fastest yet and a win in the Rebel Grade II at Oaklawn. That was a 1 1/6 miles race and Confidence Game beat two other horses in the Kentucky Derby field, both with better odds currently.
Confidence Game's run style is an "early presser" meaning he likes to get to the top early and turn it on late. I like this strategy considering he is sandwiched between two "pressers," which tend to run in the middle-of-the-pack early.
Verifying (15-1)
I swear it's just a coincidence I've picked the #2, #3, and #4 horses at the Kentucky Derby 2023. I'm getting paralysis by analysis while combing through PPs, reading the DRF, and listening to preview podcasts.
That said, Verifying's sire is Justify who is the last Triple Crown winner in 2018. His trainer, Brad H. Cox, is considered the best in the business at the moment. Cox has a Derby-high four horses in the "Run for the Roses".
Brad Cox the trainer of Angel of Empire, Hit Show, Jace's Road, and Verifying talks to the media outside his barn during the morning training for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Verifying is in the middle-of-the-pack for odds. But, based on the TwinSpires' computer models (the official betting partner of the Kentucky Derby), Verifying has the 4th-best chance to win the Kentucky Derby.
Moreover, Verifying has the fastest "average speed at distance," according to TwinSpires. This is "an average of the speed and pace ratings for the horse specific to today’s distance and surface category."