Kelly And Houck Duel At Fenway On Sunday

Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox, 1:35 ET

It hasn't been the sharpest action for the past two days as I dropped my third consecutive WNBA play (this time by the hook), and the FSU play yesterday put me off to a loss to start college football season. But, we get sports every day which means we can get that money back and then some! Baseball specifically treats us well with teams playing each other over and over so we learn a bit more about how they match up in games 1 and 2, and now game 3 of the series between the Diamondbacks and Red Sox comes to a close today.

The Diamondbacks might have been playing opossum for a little while this season. They looked like they were going to be a mediocre team that might've just had one hot year and made it to the World Series before falling short to the Rangers. They've since turned it on and are now almost 20 games over .500 and been just three games behind the Dodgers for the NL West division crown. Unless they have a terrible September, the Diamondbacks should once again find themselves in the playoffs. If you asked what has changed for the club over the past month and some change, I would simply tell you they got healthier. They've been hitting all season, but they did struggle with pitching. Today they have one of their starters, Merrill Kelly, who is reliable but was injured for a portion of this season. Kelly comes to the mound with a 3-0 record, 3.63 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. This is Kelly's seventh start of the season, and just his third since coming back from injury. In his last outing he was rocked by the Rays as he allowed six earned runs over five innings. Thanks to the Diamondback offense, he got a no-decision as they ended up losing in extra innings. Kelly has held Red Sox hitters to a .194 average over his career, with Tyler O'Neill having almost half of the at-bats and the most experience against him.

May 31, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA;  Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

When the season first set out, I said the Red Sox would be probably one of the worst teams in the division. The pitching turned out to be significantly better than I expected, and it was more than just Rafael Devers who was able to support the offense this season. In other words, I was wrong. I then doubled down a bit on this team at the break and said they would be a good bet to make the playoffs at +100. They've been inconsistent, or consistently streaky - whichever way you choose to view them - since the All-Star Break. Looking at their second-half results it is a lot of win three, then lose four, win two, lose two, situations. I also suggested that they would win over 85.5 games for the season at the break. Might as well burn that ticket now as they need to win 19 games in their final 34. A more important question is can they win today against Kelly? With Tanner Houck on the mound they should at least have a chance. Houck is 8-8 with the fifth-best ERA in baseball at 3.01, and the 25th-best WHIP at 1.15. He has produced three straight quality starts, allowing no more than two earned runs in any of the games. However, it hasn't translated to wins as the Red Sox have lost six consecutive starts that Houck has made. The majority of that is the fault of the bullpen and can't be blamed on him. Diamondback hitters are only batting .167 against him overall in 24 at-bats.

The Diamondbacks have already won this series, but the way they are playing I can't imagine them being content to just leave it there. I think there is some good value on Arizona to close out this series with a sweep. Houck does give me a little bit of hope here, but I'm going to just skip the moneyline plays altogether in this one. I feel like the real value is on the under for the first five innings. I like the game to go under 4.5 at +120, but if you prefer to get the extra run, you could do under 5.5 at -135.