Kansas State And Kansas Should Be Explosive Game

Kansas State vs. Kansas, 7:00 ET

I don't know that this has been my best college football season of all time, but it certainly hasn't been my worst. There are always a ton of games to choose from, but when I have a play in a game that is likely to peak the interest of readers, I try to share it. I do want to share a lesson that Geoff Clark shared with me: Our advantage over the book is we get to choose what we bet on and what we don't. Just because a game is on primetime or is arguably the best game of the day doesn't mean you have to bet it. In my case, I really do like this play in the game between Kansas State and Kansas.

Kansas State needs to win this game in order to stay in the running to defend the Big 12 championship from last year. They have had a solid season overall and are coming off of a really nice win over the Baylor Bears last week. Their record is just 7-3 which won't put them in contention for a National Championship or anything, but they should get into a nice bowl game if they win the rest of their games. All three losses this season have been close games. All of their losses came on the road - a three-point loss at Missouri, an eight-point loss to Oklahoma State, and a three-point overtime loss to Texas two weeks ago. In this game, I expect them to lean on quarterback Will Howard. He's had a very good season and probably can find a good spot to throw on the Kansas secondary that has allowed Texas Tech to complete 75% of passes last week. I also think that Kansas State will be able to effectively run the ball. They get good blocking and the running backs all seem to find the seams and make the most of their handoffs.

LAWRENCE, KS - SEPTEMBER 01: A view of Kansas Jayhawks helmets in the second half of a college football game between the Missouri State Bears and Kansas Jayhawks on Sep 1, 2023 at David Booth Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Kansas comes into the game with the same record as Kansas State, but has three conference losses where Kansas State has just two conference losses. Last week's loss was probably the worst of their three this season. They also lost to Texas but it wasn't a close game at all as they lost 40-14. Oklahoma State took them down as well, but that was a seven-point game. They've had a lot less continuity under center this season as they've had three different passing leaders in games. I am guessing that Jason Bean is going to be taking the snaps again this game. He was injured in the last game, and if he can't go, I really don't see this game being close. In order for Kansas to escape with a victory in this one, they need to get their running game going and alleviate the pressure that is on the quarterback, no matter who it is. Their running back, Devin Neal, was able to get 137 yards and a touchdown against Texas Tech last week. If they can replicate that, they might be able to get more space for either quarterback to throw against Kansas State.

Personally, putting a bet on the side in this game is kind of silly until you know the status of Bean. If he can go, which seems the likely outcome, the came could stay somewhat close. The best bet for this game is to take the over. I don't think either defense will be good enough to completely shut down their opponent and if Bean is out, being at home and having played last week could make the game a bit easier on third-stringer Cole Ballard. It is fairly risky with the unknown, but give me the over.

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