Kansas Can Topple TCU Even On The Road

Kansas vs. TCU, 7:00 ET

It has been a very nice run in college hoops lately, but we hit a bit of a wall yesterday. When I say it was a bit of a wall, it was the smallest wall I could hit. The game between Tennessee and Mississippi State was one that I expected a ton of points to be scored, but neither team did a very good job on offense. So I took a loss there, but I did also recommend Tennessee to cover the spread, and they did that, so nothing really negative happened there. Tonight, we are sticking to the hardwood as Kansas takes on TCU.

Kansas entered the year with most thinking they would be the National Champion, or at least one of the best teams in the nation. They are still ranked, sitting at 12th right now, but they have had some stumbles and are just 13-4 for the season. Kansas is also 4-2 in conference play to this point. The team started the season with seven straight wins, beating North Carolina and Duke, both ranked at the time. Somehow the team suffered back-to-back losses against Creighton and Missouri. Both games were on the road, but neither one of them is a team that I would normally consider better than Kansas. It was a disappointing result. They rebounded in their next two games, but then they fell to West Virginia in Kansas. This was probably the loss that I feel is most concerning. They only lost by one point, but still losing to them at home was something that just shouldn't happen. Their fourth loss was against Iowa State, losing by almost 20. This wasn't much of a surprise as Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country, and they lost on the road. The only truly impressive wins they've had were over Duke and North Carolina, but even the North Carolina win isn't that impressive looking back on it. 

Jan 19, 2025; Waco, Texas, USA;  TCU Horned Frogs guard Vasean Allette (3) drives to the basket past Baylor Bears guard VJ Edgecombe (7) during the second half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images

TCU has not been ranked, but they aren't a terrible team. Look at them as one of the bubble teams that could upset someone as a 13 seed, or a team that could be bounced in the first round after losing by 20. The range of possibilities on this team is very wide. They have lost to Michigan, Santa Clara, Colorado State, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Houston, and Utah. Only one of those teams was ranked at the time of the game, and that was Houston. In that game, TCU lost on the road by 19 points. I also am a bit concerned that TCU hasn't really had many close losses. Of the seven losses, they lost the Colorado State game in overtime. The other six games they lost by at least eight points in all of them. That can be a matter of free throws pushing the game further late, but for the most part they don't keep the game overly close.

If I consider the game from a standpoint of the total, if you combine their points allowed, they would add up to about 130 points. Their points scored add up to 144. If you take that average, which is where a lot of books will start with their totals, you get the line of 137.5. I lean toward the under in this one because TCU is at home and they aren't a high scoring team. Kansas, on the road, hasn't played as well and should have a lower scoring game. However, I think Kansas is better than TCU, and I think they are significantly better. I am going to take them to cover this game on the road at -6.5. When TCU does lose it is by margin, so I like this one. Back Kansas to cover the spread. 

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