Just Hear Me Out: 2023 Texas A&M Aggies Will Be Good
Besides College Station locals or Texas A&M alumni, I'm pretty much the only person buying stock in the Texas A&M Aggies for 2023. A lot of supporters have been snake-bitten in Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher's underwhelming 5-year tenure.
Granted, the Aggies are 3-0 in bowl games in the Fisher era. But, Texas A&M is just 39-21 since 2018. Last year was a nightmare for Aggies fans. Texas A&M went 5-7 in 2022, which was Fisher's 1st losing season in 13 years as a head coach.
Texas A&M Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher yells to the referees during the 2nd half vs. the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
However, there are several direction arrows pointing up for the Aggies entering this season and the market's expectations are still low. More importantly, perennial SEC powerhouse, Alabama, COULD regress in 2023.
2023 Texas A&M Aggies by the odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Obviously, Texas A&M's path to an SEC championship goes through Alabama. While it's "reload not rebuild" in Tuscaloosa, there are reasons to hope 'Bama has a relative down-year in 2023.
The Crimson Tide lost a combined seven All-Americans and 1st Team All-SEC players. They have their most uncertain quarterback situation since before Tua Tagovailoa.
The pandemic-shortened 2020 season was Texas A&M's best year under Fisher. The Aggies were 9-1 in 2020 and their only loss was to the eventual champion, Alabama. Texas A&M ended 2020 No. 4 in the AP Poll after boat-racing UNC in the Orange Bowl 41-14.
Texas A&M Aggies football players eat oranges while celebrating winning the 2021 Orange Bowl vs. UNC at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)
There are similarities between the Texas A&M team in 2020 and this year's. In 2020, the Aggies had a bunch of returning starters. They have 20 returning starters this season and rank 7th nationally in returning production, per ESPN's Bill Connelly.
Also, college football guru Phil Steele mentions in his 2023 college football preview that Texas A&M lost a bunch of coin-flip games in 2022. Last year, the Aggies were -4 in "net close losses".
Meaning, Texas A&M lost four more one-score games than it won. In the last 22 years, teams with four or more net close losses have a better record 82% of the time the following season, per Steele.
WHAT IS JIMBO FISHER SO AFRAID OF? JUST SAY BOBBY PETRINO IS CALLING TEXAS A&M PLAYS THIS SEASON
Plus, the Aggies have the 8th-best defensive line per Steele's preseason rankings. Texas A&M's biggest weakness from 2022 could turn into a strength in 2023. Pro Football Focus ranks the Aggies' offensive line 9th in the country ahead of this season.
Furthermore, in 2022, their offensive line was plagued with injuries and was down-right terrible. But, the Aggies return four of five starters on the offensive line, many of whom were highly recruited high school stars.
Aggies QB Conner Weigman and RB Amari Daniels in action against the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
Speaking of which, Fisher has recruited well since taking over Texas A&M's football program. In 2022, the Aggies brought in nine 5-star recruits, more than Georgia and Alabama combined, whom each had four.
One of those 5-star recruits is Texas A&M sophomore QB Conner Weigman. In five appearances last year, Weigman threw 8 TDs and no INTs. Reportedly, Weigman is "comfortable" in new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino's offense.
Not only will Weigman be protected by a strong offensive line. But, Texas A&M's four-most productive wideouts from last year's team return including 5-star WR Evan Stewart.
How to bet Texas A&M futures?
First of all, the Over 8 (-115) regular-season wins for the Aggies feels like a lock. Texas A&M's win total opened at 7.5 before sharp money hit the Over. But, I shop for fatter payouts when betting preseason futures.
With that in mind, I'm turning my focus into the Aggies to win the SEC West and to sneak into the CFP. Texas A&M hosts Alabama this year and the Aggies upset the Crimson Tide at home in 2021.
Jimbo Fisher shakes hands with Alabama head coach Nick Saban at Bryant-Denny Stadium. (Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, as much as I tried, I cannot find an argument for Texas A&M beating Georgia in the SEC title game. Sure, former Bulldogs QB Stetson Bennett graduated after leading UGA to two straight national championships.
That said, Georgia is the most talented team in the country. Regardless, there is a world where the Aggies lose to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship and both make the CFP.
BET: Texas A&M to win the SEC West (+550) and make it to the College Football Playoff (+1400) at DraftKings
