Join The Masses Betting Rams To Cover At Lions Sunday
It feels like everyone is betting the Los Angeles Rams when they visit the NFC North champion Detroit Lions Sunday NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. For the record, I'm one of those people. However, let me remind you, I started the Rams bandwagon this past summer.
I never understood why LA's stock was so low. Sure, the Rams were 5-12 last season but they were by far the most injured team in the league. Rams QB Matthew Stafford and 2021 Offensive Player of the Year, WR Cooper Kupp, only played nine games.
Consider this: Everyone thinks San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is the best in the NFL. But, Shanahan has a 55.7% career winning rate with six playoff wins, and no titles. While Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay has won 60.9% of his games, seven playoff games, and the 2021 Super Bowl.
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Essentially, I profited off of the Rams' bounce-back season because I gave McVay and Co. the benefit of the doubt. Furthermore, a lot of NFL pundits thought Stafford was washed after dealing with several injuries last season.
Yet, that's old logic. It isn't the 90s anymore. There are young MLB pitchers that had Tommy John surgery in high school or college that are hitting triple digits on the gun. Stafford is only 35 years old and has one of the strongest arms in football.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford celebrates with head coach Sean McVay after a TD pass against the Cleveland Browns at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
With that in mind, Los Angeles has the better quarterback, coach, and defense and are getting points. Betting splits be damned, I'm rolling with the Rams Sunday. They are my most profitable team in the NFL this season.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions odds (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles finished the regular season similar to Detroit last year. The Lions were 8-2 straight up (SU) and 9-1 against the spread from Week 9 on, just missing out on a playoff berth. They carried that momentum into this year and Detroit won its 1st NFC North ever.
Well, Los Angeles is the hottest team in the NFL entering this postseason. Since their Week 10 bye, the Rams are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. LA's only loss during that stretch was at the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14 in overtime.
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This Rams-Lions game reminds me of last year's Giants-Vikings game in the wild card round. The Giants were a public 'dog because the Vikings won a ton of one-score games in the regular season and their defense was terrible. New York winning in Minnesota outright, 31-24, and the public was right.
Now, the elephants in the room: Stafford and Lions QB Jared Goff are facing their former teams. Los Angeles will be more prepared for Goff than Detroit against Stafford. McVay knows Goff's limitations hence trading him to the Lions.
Lions QB Jared Goff waits to lead his team out to play the Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 18 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
While Stafford's arm talent can cut through even good defenses. Since Week 10, LA is 4th in offensive EPA/play and Stafford is 6th in EPA/play plus completion rate over expectation composite. The Rams put up 36 points on the Cleveland Browns and 31 on the Ravens in back-to-back games.
Finally, Detroit head coach Dan Campbell's aggressiveness is due to backfire. The Lions have the 2nd-most 4th-down attempts in the NFL. I have a hunch Campbell will call a fake punt at the wrong time or get stopped on a fringe 4th-down attempt and cost Detroit dearly.